Invasion of Ukraine • Page 144

Well it's definitely something Russia and Putin deeply care about and are trying to solve through their actions

 

What evidence is there that Russia will be content with taking Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk along with Crimea and will be interested in stopping there? I would say that the evidence and what Russia is saying both indicate that they are very interested in dismantling and subjugating the entirety of Ukraine and then continuing on to the Baltic states and Poland.

 

That is probably the case yes, although I don’t think it makes sense to assume that the way of going about that would be directly declaring war given those are all full NATO members. I don’t really get how this follows though, I was responding to a sarcastic comment dismissing the idea that NATO could have anything to do poor Russian-Baltic relations by pointing out that the US had a whole cottage industry for it throughout the cold war.

 

Well it’s definitely something anyone claimed at all

 

It's more that people are trying to pivot to the antisemitism in the region anytime it becomes untannable to argue that Russia is the aggrieved victim simply lashing out and not a quasi-fascist state with imperialistic tendencies and plans. Like yes those places are very bad at being accepting of Jewish peoples, but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in countries being invaded or threatened by Russia

 

"poor Russian-Baltic relations" or "they are not real countries, we actually own them, they should be wiped off the face of the earth"? I mean, I don't think NATO gets to shoulder the load for that 2nd one.

 

I wasn't being sarcastic with my question - I tried to frame it very delicately, but I suppose I am asking what is the solution you would present aside from just 'allow yourself to be invaded by Russia' ?

 

Can we get to the point here? First of all the guy who said the quote you’re alluding to is not particularly significant as far as i can tell. A random fascist with a radio show and a telegram channel and no particular power. But even assuming that reflects Russian state attitudes, what polity had the most influence in shaping the post-Soviet world? What polity’s actions in the decade after the fall of the USSR are most reflected in the state of Eastern Europe today? Which were the consequential actions that produced that region as it is today?

The US didn’t shape the region out of clay but it had huge influence on how apparatuses of state would be reconstituted. It’s not that Russia isn’t responsible for its decisions but that the US undeniably shaped the world in which Russia is making its decisions to a much greater extent than can be said about Russia itself. So when a conflict happens, we can look at it through a Realist lens, which tells us that so called Great Powers have predictable tendencies based on their conditions, especially regarding regional spheres of influence, and if we see that the conflict was predictable given the conditions the Great Power was in, we can look backwards at how those conditions came into being for hints at how the war could have been avoided. The simplest, most broadly true answer to how those pre-war geopolitical conditions came into being is via the will of the United States.

So when I am asked what a country being invaded by Russia should do I feel like it’s missing the point. Anyone facing invasion by right wing revanchist should resist. But what is the US to do? Do you have confidence in the long term fate of a region shaped by its influence and decisions? We are seeing it now, I do not like it.

Okay well, I was bringing it up to make a point about NATO’s influence in the state of the region, so not sure why you brought that up. Also define imperialism

 

I think you were mainly responding to David here not me, but Sergey Karaganov is extremely high up and influential as far as I can ascertain: close advisor to Putin and other high ranking government officials like Lavrov, heads the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and by many accounts one of the chief architects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

I wouldn't say I have confidence in it, but I certainly feel better about the region and it's peoples operating as their own independent nations rather than being invaded and subjected to Russian control. So I certainly feel better about one option over the other. Whether that leads to better long term outcomes, I don't know. I would say more recent history favors the US not doing right by the region, but the hundreds of years prior to that doesn't point towards literal Russian control of the area working out any better.

 

With the war in Gaza, I think there is a case to just rename this thread the "The war/armed conflict discussion thread" or something like that. So it isn't just about Ukraine, and we don't have to go to the General thread or create a new thread to discuss other conflicts.

 

A week after the above post, fire sale on Ukraine assets, get em while they’re cheap

Zelenskiy presses case for more help with US hedge fund, tech titans - sources

“The meeting was scheduled for hours after Zelenskiy addressed the United Nations Security Council about Russia's invasion and its consequences. The meeting was organized by JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), the sources said.

Billionaire investors Ken Griffin, Bill Ackman, and Blackstone Group (BX.N) president Jonathan Gray, who are often invited to weigh in by central bankers and policy makers on political issues, were invited to meet Zelenskiy.

Robert Kraft, chief executive of the New England Patriots football team, Henry Kissinger, a former United States Secretary of State, former Google (GOOGL.O) CEO Eric Schmidt, politician, philanthropist and businessman Mike Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York, and real estate investor Barry Sternlicht, also joined the meeting, which was held at Ukraine's mission to the United Nations.“

 

A year and half too late. How many tens of thousands of young Ukrainians had to die to reach the same end?

 

Not to mention a re-calibibrated and combat-experienced Russian Army.

 

Didn’t “people familiar with planning” tell us it was the US/CIA?

 

Same difference

 

Good analysis on where things stand