General Politics Discussion (X) [ARCHIVED] • Page 887

That does sound very nice - but so does hearing "nobody is above the law in this country"...

I do hope that is correct.

 

This just happened in a school district 20 minutes away from me...

 

It's funny to me watching a small portion of his sycophants or people that supported him slowly realize this and the fracas it is causing. They are going to all eat each other by the end. The replies in their tweets are fucking hilarious.

 

This is exactly that joke about 'I'd like to see Ol' Donny wriggle his way out of this one' [trump wriggles his way out of this one] playing out in real time. I am afraid some of these takes are overly optimistic. I hope I am wrong.

 

I mean the odds he goes to jail are low, but also the odds of him being president again are lower than your average Repub right now. People hate him too much, they'll come out and give milquetoast dudes like Joe Biden 81 million votes because of how much they hate Trump

 

Multiple male escorts have confirmed what he enjoys in the bedroom, as well as his nickname "Lady Graham". For normal people, I'd say just let him live how he chooses, but this fucker deserves to be burned at the stake for his actions against the LGBT and minority communities. We don't claim him. He can die a miserable old closeted asshole.

Oh, and as to why the conservatives allow him to coexist among them? My theory is it's because he doesn't "shove it in their faces". His colleagues don't want him talking about being gay or openly dating/marrying, so they look the other way. It's also why they despise Pete so much. He's the antithesis of Lady G: out, married, and adopted a child. All three of those things enrage conservatives.

 

The latest polling that I've seen has trump running 20+ points ahead of desantis, who is the closest one to him.

 

There's been a lot of cynicism and pessimism in here, and I understand no one wants to be caught off guard again, but this really isn't the same situation as 2016. The Trump fatigue is real, people are really tired of just hearing about him and having to deal with the bullshit he brings and that's on both sides and independents, besides a small, very fervent faction.

 

I think the good news is that the next hearing on this isn't scheduled until December of this year which means any trial won't start until early '24, at the earliest, and would play out during the primaries and/or general when the most people are paying attention.

All you're going to see between now and then is Trump losing on motions about "malicious prosecution" and likely impromptu hearings warning Trump that he'll be put under a gag order or that he's violating the protective order over disclosing materials provided during discovery of the case.

Nothing about this is setup to win any new fans, though his die-hards will certainly become die-harders, but any hangers on will quickly start to drop off. It might be enough to win a republican primary, especially among a divided field, but certainly not enough to win a general.

 

Oh, he's gonna win the nomination for sure. But any repub that wins the nomination is gonna be roughly 50/50 to win it. But if DeSantis were to be 50/50, I'd say Trump is more like 47/53. He's just hated so much.

 

Off topic, but I think any government official dude who wants there to be zero gun regulations whatsoever should not be allowed to have bodyguards or security to protect them from... guns.

 

I don’t know I’m worried that being 4 years from Trump in office and Biden doing very little to help people and letting things like tax credits expire might not drive the big turn out we saw last time around. The scary thing about every election no matter how bad the R candidate is republicans always show up and vote.

 

I'm not trying to be argumentative or overly pessimistic, I just didn't really understand what people were looking at / where were they seeing that everyone is sick of trump. Is it anecdotal evidence from what you see in daily life or online, or is there polling that shows this as well...???

Anecdotally I don't see any less trump stuff around than I ever have and I'm seeing a lot of anti-Biden stuff around in MA.

 

"You also take no sick days, as that would interfere with my business...which again, I run out of your bedroom."

 

His base is loud and big, but it's not big enough to win an election without getting enough normies to vote for him and getting the rest of the people that hate his guts to stay home. I was one of the only ones in here in the week or two leading up to 2016 that was saying I had a bad feeling about it and thought he might win, and conversely I was feeling pretty comfortable going into 2020's election. I still feel way more like 2020 than 2016. Trump struck lightening in 2016 in basically the perfect set of circumstances.


There's just nothign the Repub party is doing right now that is really expanding their base outside of certain states/areas, and that's showing in a lot of these special elections. Off year special elections should be trending against the party in power and that doesnt' seem to be the case in 2021 or now this year.

 

Like 10 years ago, if you put these exact same circumstances in, there's no way the liberal judge is winning that Wisconsin seat*



*=Should add that Dobbs probably has a lot to do with this too. Everyone knows Repubs in power=more abortion restrictions. That could be the biggest knock against Trump or any Repub going into 2024 tbh

 

He has completely lost Michigan. My guess is he still gets the Republican nomination from the MIGOP but who the hell knows. They are literally talking about doing a nominating convention with limited delegates because they are trying to figure out how to rig the primary for him.

 

The only worry I have with Trump is if he somehow carves out a big chunk of the black male vole and then is able to get some ground back in the suburbs.

 

In addition to what David said, just try to take some solace in the fact that he lost in 2020 and since then he's not been gaining votes (most likely he's just been losing even more of the independent normies that decided to take a chance on him in 2016). Coupled with elections since being really bad for R's and people getting tired of the culture war bullshit and wanting substantive policies that actually make their lives less shitty, it doesn't look good, and I think it's okay to breathe a little easy at least in regards to Trump.

 

Well said. Exactly what I have heard as well. It's ultimately pathetic.

 

He lost the popular vote in 2016, got trounced in 2018, lost by even more along with the electoral college in 2020, his candidates and the candidates most like/supportive of him did poorly by and large in 2022. His rallies/speeches don't have the same attendance and fervor they used to and certainly don't draw the same ratings they once did - nearly every network cut away from his post-arraignment speech after about 10 minutes because it wasn't worth it.