The 95th Academy Awards (2023)

Hopefully he presides over another fiasco on the level of the La La Land/Moonlight snafu.

 

Who is gonna slap Jimmy is the question

 

Adam Carolla

 

I am so out of the loop, and I know there's probably blogs galore on this topic, but what are everyone's opinions on absolute locks for best picture nominees? I feel like a lot of the movies I heard about early in the year kind of flopped.

 

The Fabelmans and Tár seem like the only locks so far. Maybe She Said?

Edit: Meant Women Talking, not She Said.

 

Fabelmans, EEAAO, Banshees, and Tar all seem like safe bets right now.

 

it's november noooooo

 

also i genuinely think it's a lock Maverick gets a nomination

 

Give Aftersun a nom (I still haven’t seen it but I hear it’s great)

 

Maybe Triangle of Sadness gets a nom? Everything Everywhere All At Once?

 

Maverick for sure. Tar and Fabelmans also seem like locks. I want Everything Everywhere but I don't know if I'd call it a lock. Black Panther maybe, but it probably depends the reaction.

 

banshees almost certainly too

 

The Fabelmans feels like the easy favorite to win BP right now, but there's a lot of stuff that I feel will get their chance to shine, like Babylon, EEAAO, Tár, Banshees, etc. I'm actually seeing The Fabelmans tonight (my Regal is doing a Mystery Movie Monday and the runtime matches up with The Fabelmans').

In a normal year I'd be groaning over a film like Maverick getting a BP nom, but Maverick is so god damn good that I wouldn't mind at all. I have a feeling it's going to be Maverick v. Avatar 2 for who's going to sweep technicals.

 

last time regal did a mystery movie the runtime “clue” was a mislead. it’s either gonna be spirited or devotion. definitely something pg-13

 

I think these 5 are locks:
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
TAR
Top Gun: Maverick

No one has seen but if they are good, will be in there:
Babylon
Avatar: The Way of Water

Other potentials i've seen thrown around. Depends how things go in the coming months on what actually gets in:
Elvis
Women Talking
Glass Onion
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
She Said
The Whale
Triangle of Sadness
Emancipation

Both might of these might dead, but who knows.
Empire of Light
Bardo

It's also important to think about which studio is putting all their chips. Each major studio is lucky to get 1-2 movies in, if any.

Bardo sounds like a mess, so Netflix might go all in on Glass Onion as their big awards contender this year. Even though it's Will Smith, Apple only has Emancipation this year so they might push it hard to prove CODA wasn't a fluke.
Elvis is the only thing Warner Bros has to push.
A24 = EEAAO, The Whale
Disney = Banshees, Avatar, Black Panther
Universal = TAR, The Fabelmans, She Said
Paramount = Top Gun, Babylon
Sony = The Woman King
NEON = Triangle of Sadness

 

I'm so behind on films this year. I've got a lot of viewing to do in the coming months.

 

Okay, now I'm excited now because it'll truly be a surprise haha. Do you remember what they were teasing and what it was last time?

 

greatest beer run ever. most people seemed to think it was fabelmans since it was also listed at two and a half hours long

 

I guess the last time they did that they listed the runtime as 2h 20m, which was the same as Amsterdam.

 

It was Spirited

 

There’s buzz that Angela Bassett will be the MCUs first Oscar nominated actor in a category.

 

Nice. I appreciate the thought put in to this reply. My wife saw the Woman king and absolutely loved it. We're both interested in TAR / Triangle of Sadness (though the extreme gross out humor warnings are putting me off), and Glass Onion looks like a fun follow up, and then there's a few others I'm on the fence about. There's also plenty in this I haven't really heard of. Everything Everywhere all at once was good but not great (imo of course), and may slightly suffer from not getting the regency bias in it's favor, but we'll see (and I also know I'm in the minority of my meh opinion).

I want to see Banshees as well as I really like in Bruges, but from reviews/comments, it seems heavy and I struggle to find the right moment to watch heavy movies.

A few people have said Top Gun and I totally agree. It was loved by critics and then a crowd pleaser to boot.

 

The Whale trailer just dropped:

 

I’m behind on movies this year. My top five so far are EEAAO, Nope, The Northman, The Batman, and Three Thousand Years of Longing. I’m actually in the theatre waiting for Tar to start. I’m not a fan of the first Top Gun and won’t see the new one. I’ll check out the recs from above.