General Politics Discussion VIII [ARCHIVED] • Page 336

How many posts/pages will this thread gain over the next 24 hours? Should we take bets? Free dark mode to the winner

 

So my amateur analysis of PA using the NYTimes county maps...

Westmoreland County went huge for Trump in 2016. He put up 116K votes there, vs. Romney's 103K. The vote for the Dem candidate there was virtually unchanged, 63K for Obama and 59K for Clinton.

In 2018, Wolf and Bob Casey matched/surpassed Obama's numbers in that county, while the Republican candidates got...79 and 76K.

So there was a 40K dropoff in votes from 2016 for Trump to the midterms. Can Trump reach his 2016 numbers there? Or even Romney's 2012 numbers? Seems like an important county to watch.

There's a few other counties in PA where Trump's vote share was just so much bigger than Romney's in 2012 or the Republican gov and senate candidates in 2018. I'll be looking had at those counties probably.

 

Oh also, Biden swept Dixville Notch and gained 2 votes over HRC in the other NH town that reported their results.

 

Good poly sci nerd shit.

 

This is where 538s models lose me

they are saying that the following events are all more likely than a Trump win:

Gardner winning in CO
Doug Jones winning in AL
Dems somehow winning Mississippi senate race

 

I think that Mississippi seat I saw was at like 3 point difference earlier today which was fucking wild to see.

 

Damn they landed this ANd beastie boys?

 

Either Santa kicks me in the balls or shoots me in the head, ether way I'll be lying flat under the tree tomorrow

 

I want him to lose so bad he doesn’t even finish out the last few months of his term

 

I'm feeling oddly really excited about tomorrow and not that nervous. That's potentially really bad lol, someone give me some bad news to offset it

 

Happy election day?... Only reason I'm up this early is because in literally the easiest election to vote in in American history, my mom is making us get to the polls first thing in the morning to "make a statement against Trump" (even though Trump people are the most likely to vote on election day...). Anyway, I am very much hoping that in 18 hours or so we will know that the orange idiot will be gone come January, although I recognize that is likely wishful thinking

 

Let’s go

 

a person got out of their car that’s covered in trump stickers saw how long the line was got back in their car and left

Lol weak willed mother fucker eat shit

 

Voter intimidation is real

 

Polls open in 20 minutes and my voting location in Philly already has 50ish in line. Hopefully it means good turnout

 

Just voted! Polls opened at 6 and there were 100 people in line at 6:15

 

Yeah there were about 150 people in line here at 5:30 and it’s only getting longer

 

Here we go

 

Listening to "Try" by Pink rn let's go

 

Prediction based on a hunch and no evidence: Biden wins but Dems don't win the Senate

 

Prediction, today Biden drops out and endorses Hillary. Hillary wins 400+ ec votes. We have brunch tomorrow