General Politics Discussion VII [ARCHIVED] • Page 1625

He's saying absentee ballots are OK because that's how he votes. There's no mystery lol

 

The same people that collect and tabulate the absentee ballots you fucking moron.

I can literally drop my ballot off at the clerks office 24/7 and it goes right into their building.

 

Our Election Forecast Didn’t Say What I Thought It Would

I’ll be briefer on these points, since we covered them at length in our introductory feature. But forecasts based on economic “fundamentals” — which have never been as accurate as claimed — are a mess this year. Depending on which variables you look at (gross domestic product or disposable income?) and over what time period (third quarter or second quarter?) you could predict anything from the most epic Biden landslide in the history of elections to a big Trump win.

Furthermore, FiveThirtyEight’s version of a fundamentals model actually shows the race as a tie — it expects the race to tighten given the high polarization and projected economic improvement between now and November. So although we don’t weigh the fundamentals all that much, they aren’t exactly a reason to be more confident in Biden.

What about Trump’s approval rating? It’s been poor for a long time, obviously. And some other models do use it as part of their fundamentals calculation. But I have trouble with that for two reasons. First, the idea behind the fundamentals is that they’re … well, fundamental, meaning they’re the underlying factors (like economic conditions and political polarization) that drive political outcomes. An approval rating, on the other hand, should really be the result of those conditions.

Second, especially against a well-known opponent like Biden, approval ratings are largely redundant with the polls. That is to say, if Trump’s net approval rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) is -12 or -13 in polls of registered and likely voters, then his being down 8 or 9 points in head-to-head polls against Biden is pretty much exactly what you’d expect. (Empirically, though, the spread in approval ratings are a bit wider than the spreads in head-to-head polls. A candidate with a -20 approval rating, like Carter had at the end of the 1980 campaign, wouldn’t expect to lose the election by 20 points.)

tl;dr: Buckle up. It's gonna do exactly what we have assumed from the start: tighten and be very close.

 

The past 2 local elections I've done absentee ballot voting but I just dropped it off at my polling place the day of the election.

 

I know it's a Cameo and he's likely just reading a script, but this is still rich coming from a Trump supporter.

This sure didn't age well - Trump critics will apologize in four years: 'Cheers' actor John Ratzenberger

 

it has happened in the past here but it’s rare. If we had a parliamentary system like many European counties do it would help. That way partied would get seats in the legislature based on their total votes.

But also here you don’t need to get 50% to win in most places (some states and local govts have changed that but it’s not super widespread), so that makes voting for a 3rd party candidate almost useless at times. If more places moved to what’s called ranked choice voting, it could make it possible for some Indy and 3rd party candidates to win

 

Porter, AOC, Tlaib, and Pressley are all members of the oversight committee. Gonna be good.

 

NYPD definitely stopped ignoring an 18 year old case so it could look like they're doing their job

 

politics really is just wrestling for nerds.

 

next up Tupac??

 

Ranked Choice Voting seems interesting. I've never actually heard about it before. This video explains it well:

In most countries, if no one gets at least 50% of the votes, there is another round where you can vote only for first or second placed candidate in the previous round.

 

Bah Gawd that's AOC's music! Through hellfire and brimstone!

 

Did someone mention RCV!? By god, they're playing my music!

 

I'm very mad you used this the exact moment I did.

 

Can you imagine if politics was actually like wrestling? AOC heel turn would be the worst

 

I only wish there was a way through typing to express that I not only hear that in Jim Ross’s voice, but I also hear Jerry “The King” Lawler doing his high pitched yelp of disbelief as the music starts

 

Pro tip- Trust 538 more than RCP averages. RCP is raw averages and 538 is weighted based on quality of the poll, among other factors.

 

I'm comfortable having basically no idea what any of this means.

 

“And that’s why I support y-.....Joe Biden.”
*gives Bernie the finger, Stone cold stunner*
The loudest boos ever.

 

how were you a child in the 90s and didn’t watch wrestling?! Haha

 

I'm even fine looking at raw averages if you don't cherry pick calendar dates as though they correlate 1 to 1 in various election cycles.

 

Pretty sure I wasn't allowed to ("too violent"), but I also never really got into it otherwise. I was more into ninjas and karate.

 

Yeah Clinton spiked high right after the convention. It’s gonna be WEIRD this year trying to compare day by day stuff because of the delayed conventions and them being digital.