General Politics Discussion VII [ARCHIVED] • Page 1586

everytime someone posts a 538 tweet im rehasing bernie vs dnc for 3 pages

 

May as well make this PSA now:

No one is forcing you to look at the needle.

 

And I'll chime in on the Clinton campaign mistakes from 2016

 

That’s NYTimes and the other Nate. And the needle will definitely be here come election night, it is better if we just accept it now.

 

The needle exists beyond our reality

 

We are still almost three months out from election night. Biden hasn't even been formally nominated yet. Polls are meaningless right now, there's no reason to pay any attention to them whatsoever. We don't need constant reminders about how maybe Trump voters are considering Biden; they'll go back to Trump in the end and the election will be just as tight as 2016 if not tighter. Just focus on everything else going on.

 

Polls are just a snapshot in time, but I wouldn't say they aren't important. It's important to know where the election stand at this current time so you know what kind of work needs to be done. State polls especially, can help strategize where to spend ad money and where you need to focus more resources toward.

No one is looking at polls now and being like "that's it, Biden's gonna win. The polls are 100% right and will stay like that for the next 3 months"

Also can maybe be an indicator on how certain events play around with the polling numbers -- what was helpful and what hurt the campaign.

 

I’d rather have Dr. Nick than Dr. Atlas tbh

 

holy shit this is the most cursed website of all time

 

Dr. Nick did go to Hollywood Upstairs Medical College after all...

 

I know it's not 538. Still no reason to ever look at it

 

Haha I love it. Silver's article does a great job explaining their approach. Also notes that Trump had the exact same chance of winning now that he did election night 2016

 

we are all fivey fox

 

Yeah I like it, seems like they’re going out of their way to explain shit to people like they’re children since so many folks don’t seem to understand how odds work

 

Lmaooooo and this here is proof of folks not understanding predictions

 

Election "predictions" in mid-August are worth less than nothing

 

Around 70-80 days out polling gets ~close~ to where it's historically been on election day.

Today's 82 days away (and early mail in vote being more widespread this year impacts it more than usual). We're really coming up on it.

 

wonder why there's a major drop to around 4% around 70 days out. That's when the final tickets are set and polling can really ramp up?

 

Conventions and their "bounces" usually have happened and been adjusted for around there.