General Politics Discussion VII [ARCHIVED] • Page 1382

Just from personal anecdotes, I disagree. I interact with right wingers elsewhere on the web and a solid amount of people who either voted for Trump or didn't vote at all/voted 3rd party are on the Vote for Biden to get Trump out bandwagon. That 2nd type of person especially is the type of voter you're hoping to attract in the swing states in the midwest, tbh. The traditional Republican voter who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump in 2016 but hated HRC/didn't think Trump would be SO bad that they had to vote against him.

In states with vote margins so small in 2016, even a couple thousand of those votes helps. My gut feeling is that the anti-trump sentiment is going to be so ridiculously high that you probably don't need Kasich's help at all to win, but I can understand the campaign team feeling otherwise.

 

A real thing I him just heard someone say while I was at work:

“I took the test 2 months ago and they told me I had the antibodies. Then I went to the doctor again and they told me I stilll had the antibodies. Now, I just went back for bloodwork and they gave me the test and they said, you don’t have the antibodies...I never got it, my son never got it, my grandkids never got it. I don’t know anyone that got it. It’s all bullshit. You know when this is all gonna go away? Right after we get a new president”

 

Yeah, there were quite a few swing voters that broke to Trump in 2016 that went back to Dems in 2018. It's not a play for his base that aren't going anywhere.

 

I think so too. Policy wise, Biden has mostly been moving to the left and then courting republicans by saying “I’m not trump and know what the job entails”. My hope is that Biden can be a gateway for many Anti-Trump Republicans into the Democratic Party hoping that they’ll see their taxes didn’t go up 500% or forcing you to have abortions. The Dem Party has continually (albeit slowly) been moving to the left instead of the center so assuming that continues, it can mean a great future of progressivism in the long term. Laying the foundations of getting liberal judges and expanding the base.

 

Those antibodies tests are so flawed and I'm pretty sure I read elsewhere that they could pick up antibodies to common cold coronaviruses too. which would provide some protection, according to theories! but not as much as real covid19 anitbodies.

 

I think the current state of the country is 1000 times more likely to swing people to vote for Biden than a speech from a guy who no one outside of Ohio knew about before 2015 and also wasn't a particularly good Republican candidate

But also who cares, its a convention and it ultimately doesn't make any difference

 

Fucking horrifying thread.

 

Biden winning the nom in kind of a landslide doesn’t help the theory that the party is moving to the left and not the center

 

Ah yes, the classic “wait five years and until the judge is presiding over a case that many powerful people have an interest in” revenge tale.

checks out

 

Zoom introduces all-in-one home communications appliance for $599 – TechCrunch

lol ... if i walked into someone's house and they had a "ZOOM MONITOR" ... I'd never let them live it down

 

And yet ...

 

Not for nothing that Biden is running on a more progressive platform than Hillary, by a lot

 

David Shor’s Unified Theory of American Politics

That’s exactly right. Campaigns do want to win. But the people who work in campaigns tend to be highly ideologically motivated and thus, super-prone to convincing themselves to do things that are strategically dumb. Nothing that I tell people — or that my team [at Civis] told people — is actually that smart. You know, we’d do all this math, and some of it’s pretty cool, but at a high level, what we’re saying is: “You should put your money in cheap media markets in close states close to the election, and you should talk about popular issues, and not talk about unpopular issues.” And we’d use machine learning to operationalize that at scale.

The right strategies for politics aren’t actually unclear. But a lot of people on the Clinton campaign tricked themselves into the idea that they didn’t have to placate the social views of racist white people.

Well, that's a super depressing sentence.

I think that winning back these voters is important. So if I was running for office, I would definitely say that the reason these voters turned against us is because Democrats failed to embrace economic populism. I think that’s sound political messaging. But in terms of what actually drove it, the numbers are pretty clear. It’s like theoretically possible to imagine a voter who voted for Democrats their whole life and then voted for Trump out of frustration with Obamacare or trade or whatever. And I’m sure that tons of those voters exist, but they’re not representative.

When you take the results of the 2012 and 2016 elections, and model changes in Democratic vote share, you see the biggest individual-level predictor for vote switching was education; college-educated people swung toward Democrats and non-college-educated people swung toward Republicans. But, if you ask a battery of “racial resentment” questions — stuff like, “Do you think that there are a lot of white people who are having trouble finding a job because nonwhite people are getting them instead?” or, “Do you think that white people don’t have enough influence in how this country is run?” — and then control for the propensity to answer those questions in a racially resentful way, education ceases to be the relevant variable: Non-college-educated white people with low levels of racial resentment trended towards us in 2016, and college-educated white people with high levels of racial resentments turned against us.

You can say, “Oh, you know, the way that political scientists measure racial resentment is a class marker because college-educated people know that they’re not supposed to say politically incorrect things.” But when you look at Trump’s support in the Republican primary, it correlated pretty highly with, uh … racially charged … Google search words. So you had this politician who campaigned on an anti-immigrant and anti–political correctness platform. And then he won the votes of a large group of swing voters, and vote switching was highly correlated with various individual level measures of racial resentment — and, on a geographic level, was correlated with racist search terms. At some point, you have to be like, oh, actually, these people were motivated by racism. It’s just an important fact of the world.

 

A good write-up on the progressive elements to Biden’s agenda


Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda

 

There were progressives running that were rejected for Biden, who’s record is uh not progressive in the slightest. So forgive me if I don’t put too much weight on the platform. They’ve always known these ideas are popular, people like Biden just never fought for them.

 

NYC Attorney Out To Reclaim His Ex Wife From Feminism's Clutches, Get Laid Easier

 

I get people are tired of Weiss but I think this article is, more than anything, a good little analysis of the discrepancy between the biggest Israel defenders and...everyone else

 

I agree to an extent, but I also think that many people voted for Biden not because of his platform but because they liked his character and his work as VP (and gave us the best chance to beat Trump). The platform being more progressive is just an overall showing that the party is embracing more progressive ideas. If Biden didn’t run, it’s very possible we would be given Bernie or Warren as the nominee even with many other moderate choices.

 

Lets just say I don't think Bernie gets 30% of the vote in a 1992 or 2000/04 or even 2008 primary.

 

If you’re a Republican who is on the fence about Biden/Trump, in what world does Kasich’s support have any effect on your decision lol

 

Ohio poll shows tight presidential race, record approval for Gov. DeWine

A Quinnipiac University poll, released on Wednesday, had Biden receiving 46 percent of the vote and Trump receiving 45 percent, well within the reported 3 percent margin of error. The poll also found Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine has an approval rating of 75 percent, one of the highest in the country and the highest for any Ohio governor in a Quinnipiac poll since 2007.

My guess is an attempt at suburban Ohioans, where even the Dems like the republican governor:

Mr. DeWine had a 5-point higher approval rating among Democrats than Republicans. Former Gov. John Kasich, also a Republican, held a higher approval rating among Democrats during his last couple of years in office as well.

 

I think the base is changing, largely because there’s nowhere else for progressives to vote, but I haven’t see a lot of evidence the party itself is actually moving left. I don’t mean platforms or speeches I mean actual changes in law and policy. Nationally the party overwhelmingly got behind Hillary and then Biden. I wish I saw it differently but I just see the same old shit day to day and my only hope was this primary would start to change it at the top and I was way off there.