General Politics Discussion VII [ARCHIVED] • Page 148

Trying to do the mental gymnastics that will convince myself that the first 1-on-1 debate will be a game changer and shift the course of the primary

 

Think if the economy tanks then Biden probably wins a general. If not, he doesn’t. If he does, he will fill his cabinet with bankers, and lost to Tom Cotton/Lindy Li in 2024.

 

ah, good

 

Trump will for sure be able to beat him on these things. I’ve been saying for a while that the main things that got him elected (Hillary being establishment incrementalism, vote for Iraq war and other military intervention, and for bad trade agreements) would be used in the same way with Biden and cause him to lose the same states Hillary did.

Biden is definitely more popular than Hillary in general, but is that enough? Not so sure

 

America panicking and tossing the bomb into the hands of two senile old dumbasses committed to not doing anything about the roots of our problems is obviously tragic, but also the most hilarious Vonnegut-ass thing that can happen. Wish we’d get invaded.

 

They’re gonna put Comey in some dumb position aren’t they

 

Some of those things seem to be unique to 2016 though (Clinton supporters voting in the GOP primary, young voters having high turnout, Bernie winning independents by big margin). None of those things seem like they will happen based on previous states that voted.

But I guess it wasn't expected in 2016 either, so we will see

 

Text banking for Bernie has been fun. Turns out there's a lot of angry folks out there.

 

Lol Trump is melting down worrying over the virus but still shaking people's hands? Ok

 

Don't listen to this man, 538 is all you should look at! Do not fool yourselves, all hail Nate silver!

(I'm only somewhat being facetious, I trust their models the most)

 

When in the matter of about a week your model goes from having one candidate winning every state except one to having the other candidate winning every state except one, can any model be trusted? lol

 

inshallah

 

hahahahahaah

 

ya the models need refining. Need to figure out the mathematical way to incorporate "the south never does what you idiots expect" into the models