General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 2118

I think Biden could get between 5-6 maybe. Amy 1. (Which means she qualifies for another debate blah.)

 

Biden is probably in the most precarious position in terms of losing delegates.

He is at at 15.4% in CD3. Sanders is next in line to get his delegate there. Biden is also at 15.4% statewide. If he drops there looks like Pete and Bernie are inline to get them.

Warren is in decent shape to maybe gain a delegate or two. She is both inches away from being viable in CD4 (14.9%), which would give her one of Pete's delegates, and also close to catching Biden in CD1 (0.2%) which would give her one of Biden's delegates. If both that happen and Biden loses his CD3 and Statewide delegates he could fall as low as 2.

Sanders can still pass Pete for a few delegates but it would take more like a 3% swing in the vote which there might not be enough room for.

 

You all wanna here some bullshit?

Every state is doing the "Give a portion of your delegates to each congressional district, and then a proportion of your delegates to the state" thing. And then you just need to be 15% viable in a cd to get one of their delegates.

Which seems pretty reasonable. But turns out some states seem better than others at diving up the delegates by how many dems are actually there. In Washington, stuff appears to be directly proportional to how Hillary and Obama did in 2016/2012. Pramilla's district gets 11, the super red district gets 3. Everything else is inbetween

But in NY, AOC's district (14th, Cook +29) somehow only gets 6 delegates. Same as fucking Chris Collins old district). According their site they give equal weighting to 2010 census population and how Hillary/Obama performed in 2016/2012 but that still doesn't pass the smell test.

Haven't checked other places because I've been looking at this stuff for an hour now and should really probably just go to bed. But it seems like many states are systemically designed to award candidates that do well all throughout the state instead of just populations centers.

Somehow, despite twice in 20 years getting rudely reminded how bad the electoral college is the democratic party seems to basically have thought it was a good idea to run their entire nomination process with 50 tiny electoral colleges

 

Now google Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem and enjoy never sleeping again.

 

lol

 

what the fuck

 

Ah, I see things are going well this morning.

 

Pelosi upstaged an hour long speech in 4 seconds. ultimately pointless but at least people will talk about it and not the SOTU

 

I think the reason people are mad at Pelosi is because she hasn't done much of actual resisting when it comes to, idk, not giving him a huge defense budget etc. and she only does this weird little performative acts of resistance that are ultimately toothless.

like yeah, it was cool but it's also fucking nothing.

 

It wasn’t cool like she looks like she was just tearing it up because the speech was over and she didn’t need her copy anymore lol like I don’t think there was some kind of grand resistance strategy behind it.

 

come on, you can’t just expose the Democratic party’s playbook like that

 

why must an evil man taint the purity of The Simpsons?

 

What even are SDEs and why should I care about them over the pledged delegates?

 

New Hampshire vols better be going all the way in

 

Thanks I hate it