General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 1046

His campaign manager is the only one I've seen comment

 

It may have been earlier than that TBH, but that was around when it was apparent Trump was gonna be the nominee and I remember some of the head to heads in Ohio and Iowa or something like that being way too close. Maybe that happens again this time around but I think a few others here laid out reasons why that’s less likely to happen this time around.

 

Holy shit:

Fuck. Right. Off.

 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: No one who didn’t vote for Hillary in 2016 is going to be motivated to vote for Biden in 2020.

 

Looks like it was a private Christian academy, scarier that all prep school students seem to be monsters

 

This revisionist history is weird. You can go look at the RCP average. If you think Biden is different you have to make the argument for why, not just pretend he’s polling so much better that it’ll never change. He’s not polling better in Ohio, he’s averaging a 4-5pt lead in head to heads. Roughly what Clinton was for most of the summer.

 

Disagree--the fear and hatred of Trump alone is going to get some people out in 2020 that didn't vote in 2016. You're also probably going to get more suburban flight from Trump to Biden like in 2018.

My worry would be whether or not it would be enough to make up for the younger voters, because you'd definitely lose some who are deflated and disinterested after having their hopes crushed in the primary again. My current gut feeling based on everything else we see would be that yes it would be enough, but that could always change depending on how shitty of a campaign Biden runs. But I don't think the young will be as likely to stay home as they were in 2016 due to reasons already stated. So the hope would be you don't have as much attrition there as you did after the 2016 primary but, who knows.

I just want Warren to be the candidate at this point. She continues to prove to me at least that she's very close to Bernie on a lot of policy while simultaneously having the personality to win over voters with her folksy charm etc. Bernie still, rightly or wrongly, gets painted as angry and shouting and a lotttt of the female dem hillary stans want absolutely nothing to do with him. I still think he could beat Trump pretty soundly (he polls almost as well as Biden in most of these swing state head to heads!), but Idk....definitely a bit more fear for me with him than Warren at this point, which I never would have predicted a year or two ago. The FoxNews sexist hate campaign against Warren hasn't been able to do to her what it did to Hillary, which I was scared about for a while.

 

Joe Biden known winner of the inspire and get out the youth vote.

 

The only recent poll on head ot heads in Ohio that I can find has Biden +8 on Trump. But see that big dip in May that had Trump within the MOE on HRC? That right there was trouble. A candidate as awful as Trump should not have been within the MOE on her there.

 

*looking for anywhere where someone said that*

 

Th way Joe Biden has been talking down about millennials and young voters — more than hillary did, is not going to get them to the polls.

Haters of Angry Bernie are still going to vote for him - those are reliable dems “vote blue no matter who”. A lot of the younger voters and people that Biden will need support from are independents and no reliable blue voters

 

Do a lot of people really not ultimately vote in the election if the candidate they really liked earlier isn't the one who is picked...???

I remember speaking with a good number of people back in 2016 who weren't very politically active but who just thought Trump didn't have a chance in hell of actually winning and there was no way he would ever be elected. I would like to think the last four years scared some sense into people like this and they may turn up at the polls this time.

 

Any interactions I've had/seen with these people have indicated that they will tell YOU to "vote blue no matter who", but that doesn't apply to them if the choice is Bernie

 

Tried finding polls for Trump/Clinton in Ohio this early and unfortunately doesn't seem to be easy to find. Closest thing I could find was this:
Poll shows Biden more popular than Clinton ever was in Ohio

So it sounds like, at the very least, he's starting from a better position off strength in Ohio that Clinton was.


(I don't think the Dems should concentrate or worry about winning Ohio TBH. Not saying abandon it but I'd pour way more into the 3 "blue wall" states, arizona, iowa, florida, NC, and Georgia....and now maybe Texas?!)

 

MOE on most polls is between 3-4. Biden is right now on an average at 5 ahead in Ohio. So, pretty close to the MOE. The numbers continually do not back up what you're saying about Biden's electability advantage if you are unwilling to reconcile with the 2016 election because then you have to make a case that Biden's numbers will not move, at all, in the general election. Good luck.

 

That literally says nothing about Biden "inspiring" the youth vote, tho. It would almost undoubtedly be an anti-Trump motivation.

 

You're basing you "average" off of, as far as i can tell, two polls...one of which was taken in December, 9 months ago.

I'd say the most recent poll from two weeks ago is way more accurate right now than trying to average those two together, and I just provided some numbers from that toledo article that don't say things you'll like.

 

We're putting hopes on the the "vote against Trump" playbook again instead of the "vote for someone that inspires and you like they're policies" I see.

What could go wrong this time.

 

Same. I've seen some frankly scary shit from this group of people and how they talk about a hypothetical Bernie nomination. My hope is they're mostly just trolls.

 

I'm basing it off of close to 15 polls.
And no, one poll is not more accurate than an average.

I'll bookmark this post to come back to next year and see if Biden's numbers have moved in Ohio at all, since you seem convinced they won't. You're gonna be very wrong and I bet we see it as more state polls come out as soon as the next three months.

 

I think you underestimate how many people were very much in "How bad could he be", "at least he's not another politician", "hillary really really sucks as a person and I hate her", "she's going to win anyway so whatever" camp in 2016.

I don't know if anyone here is willing or happy to "put their hopes" into that, but I do think the difference of Trump being a known quanitity as a president now combined with the nominee, whoever they are, not being Hillary, is a pretty big difference from 2016.

 

jesus dude, they let him back to school a year after he made that hit list??????