General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 762

I think he’s a true libertarian type on a lot of issues where he’s just a “less government is always good” type...except with issues of the womb of course.

 

I mean even beyond that, i usually find myself surprised when i look at her numbers From certain cities like Philly or Miami or whatever expecting her numbers to look bad compared to Obama’s 2012 numbers but she actually had higher turnout than him in a lot of places and I’m always surprised by that

 

I would either go 20+40 and then add 7+8 to that, or I’d do 25+50.

This is pretty much what common core math tries to teach little kids how to think about numbers, btw

 

I have no doubt whoever the nominee is will likely win the popular vote by an even larger margin than 2016. They’ll rack up the votes in urban areas again. The question comes down to can they flip the states that Trump took in 2016.

 

This is also a way I would do it

 

We gotta get Pennsylvania and Michigan back

 

PA, MI and Wisconsin and we're good, right?

 

That would do it. There are other variations too.

 

I feel great about those two. It’s Wisconsin that worries me.

Yep. Wisconsin is iffy though. Just hoping for a wave to carry Florida, Arizona, Maine, etc haha

 

In any of those cases, I think you need all 3.

If we just got PA and MI and Trump keeps WI, he still wins.

 

Definitely wouldn't hurt to take back Florida.

 

Yep.

Those two and Arizona would result in a 269 tie I believe (on phone so not checking atm).Maine 01 would put it over the top in that case.

If they got just Pa and Florida I think that’s enough?

 

Wisconsin gives me hope from 2018 but I'm still super nervous about it

 

I do not feel great about Michigan. Pennsylvania I'm like 80%.

 

Idk why but I think I feel even better about Michigan than I do about PA. They just seem angry about Trump and a Democrat gov makes it harder to do voter suppression and etc.

I think I should reword it...I don’t know if I feel better about MI but they definitely feel more progressive than PA people.

 

They're virtually tied in an ideological makeup. I don't trust either state's moderate voters to get behind a dem when it comes time to vote.

 

all depends on who the Dem nominee is

 

I don't think it does.

 

I do :shrugs:

 

Head to heads in those states for the top 3 or 4 candidates are virtually tied.

MI:
Biden v. Trump: 54%-46%
Klobuchar v. Trump: 53%-47%
Sanders v. Trump: 52%-47%
Harris v. Trump: 51%-49%
Warren v. Trump:51%-49%

 

I believe (apologies if i'm misattributing this to you!) that you said in here recently polls are just a snapshot of where things are right now, this far out.

There are candidates who, over the course of a long campaign, will either encourage or discourage turnout, speak to or alienate disenfranchised voters, win over or not win over the handful or people who voted for Trump but are persuadable. I think it will be tight in Iowa-Ohio-Michigan-Minnesota-Wisconsin-Pennsylvania (am i forgetting any?), but I think there are some Dem candidates who can win there and others who cannot.

 

8 point lead and 2 point lead are not "virtually tied"

 

The difference between 54% and 51% is MOE in one poll, and yes, virtually tied.