General Politics Discussion [ARCHIVED] • Page 34

Hahahaha I thought the same thing

 

They all were unbelievably scary in their own way.

 

Trump 41%, Clinton 39% - Rasmussen Reports™

 

lol Rasmussen.

I can't believe people still trust their polls after the last two elections.

 

Am I being punk'd? Did Cruz really drop out?

 

I just saw another poll that counters that one. Depending on the situation, I could see Trump winning. People underestimate white resentment and their antipathy towards Hillary.

 

Rasmussen is skewed extremely to the right.

But yeah I think there's a solid 20-30% chance that Trump wins. People need to vote.

 

There's a lot of apathy on the right too, my highly conservative mom is gonna sit this one out because she hates Trump.

Trump is the least like nominee in history probably, but Hillary would be second so I wouldn't get comfortable yet.

 

This. The fact is that both are so highly negatively rated, that I don't think Independents - the majority of the electorate, are loyal to either candidate and thus, could change their minds' multiple times before election day. I really think the three debates are going to determine everything in this election. If Trump really crushes Clinton in all three, then I think he wins.

 

I think that's unlikely. As well as Trump ended up doing in the primary debates I see Hillary wiping the floor with him and making him look ridiculous in the process

 

have debates ever actually done anything to determine a presidential election besides making nixon look sweaty and gross when he stood across from kennedy

 

Yeah, the poll I saw after I posted that one had Hillary leading by seven points. Both parties seem to be experiencing their constituents crossing the aisle. It is an interesting, if not crushingly depressing, election at least.

 

I think Lincoln was elected because of his debates with Douglas

 

lincoln lost that election

 

She has to get wonky in a simple way at the debates, IMO. Needs to explain to people in ways they'll understand why Trump's dumbass plans won't work. Bill had that gift, i don't know if she does.

Romney caught up to Obama in the polls in 2012 after the first debate. Obama crushed him in the 2nd debate and never looked back.

Heh, "crushingly depressing" is a pretty good description for sure. But yeah, don't trust Rasmussen, they've always skewed a to the right the way PPP skews to the left.

 

This election cycle is weird, I could definitely see the debates determining the results based on the un-favorability ratings as not many individuals are beholden / loyal to a certain candidate.

 

oops I'm an idiot

 

Reagan embarrassing Carter on national TV. Clinton and Bush I.

 

It depends, I think, on whether or not Hillary fights on Trumps terrain. His opponents on the republican side could delve into wonkery if they wanted to, but it didn't actually matter at the end of the day. What Trump can do is tap into that populist sentiment, which doesn't give a damn about details.

 

eh. i dont know that the polls at the time reflect those shifts the way you might think.

 

Home

 

Before everyone gets excited/riled up...

 

Nailed it.

 

This article was on WashPost this morning. I don't think it's automatically as cut and dry as the author suggests, but demographics could pose a problem for Trump in the swing states he (and the republican party) needs. Particularly those with large Latino populations which he isn't getting. I wonder if the influx of new voters for trump that have come in the primaries will counteract that in the GE.