UK and Europe World • Page 11

Yup! Doesn't need to be a win for Corbyn, just a loss for May. I'm in the same situation so don't worry!

 

Really sad news this, as much as I hate the Conservatives I think she did fairly well with this being the case. Thankfully much of the attack seems to be on May rather than Rudd.

 

Where Theresa fails, Amber proves to be 'strong and stable'. Respect to her for that.

Genuinely think May has hurt the party with this election. With the last election, I was a Labour voter but couldn't really rally behind Milliband over Cameron. He just came across as uncharismatic and not worthy of being a leader. I'm glad the tables turned, for me personally. Although it did take time to digest.

 

I've gone through a weird arc with it all- I was a green member and voter in 2015 but came to Labour because of Corbyn. I began to lose faith after the leadership challenge because he didn't really seem to have been doing any better around article 50 and the party seemed to be floundering but since the election was called he's won me over massively.

As for Rudd, I'd agree. Really, how heartless is May to have put Amber Rudd up to debate with that being the case? She could've quite easily taken her place but her cowardice was more important. Despicable.

 

You know it's not going well when even Kuenssberg goes in hard on the Cons.

 

Seems like the fact that the campaign is so short is really a benefit for labour, no room for too many more twists and turns

 

I mostly agree with you but I think another week or two would've ensured a Labour victory. We've done much better than we could've done and riding that out a bit longer might've sealed it for Labour here. Not that we still won't potentially win, but it'd be by a larger degree with a little bit longer spent convincing people.

 

Yeah the fact that it's such a short campaign time has definitely limited the amount of damage that Murdoch and Dacre can do with their garbage rags. Which is usually a big help for the Tory's in the run up to an election. It's pretty amazing to see the damage May has done to her campaign in such a short space of time. I'm still not getting my hopes up yet though, after the pre-election polls/results in the last GE/Brexit.

 

I know you don't want to get your hopes up, but the gap closing to 3% if true is miraculous.

 

That's still +5% for the Tories over what they got in 2015. Blair's 1997 landlside was the only instance where it was higher.

Winning percentages:
2015: 37%
2010: 36%
2005: 35%
2001: 41%
1997: 43%

Obviously influenced in part though by Ukip and LibDem's failings.

 

Also puts Labour above everything from the last 12 years, though. Really the percentage itself is meaningless, it's where the votes are stacked. Placement could be everything, and stacked badly for the Tories that could easily be a hung parliament. Yougov has the Conservatives ranging anywhere from 285-344. Anything below 300 all but guarantees Labour a coalition government.

 

I really enjoyed the debate last night and a highlight (as some have pointed out) was Amber Rudd saying "judge us on our record" and what seemed like the whole room laughing.

It was a good decision for Jeremy Corbyn to show up. I think May's decision to not be there really stood out and it was great to see some great lines from the other leaders about her lack of leadership. I thought Corbyn was a bit wooden in his opening statement but debated well throughout the rest of it.

I absolutely hate it when politicians talk over each other. I also find it hilarious.

The polls are telling us that the tide is turning and Labour are improving. However, I have a concern and I'd love to hear what others think. Last night everyone seemed to be against the Conservatives - including the audience. I know they said that the audience was split 50/50 remain/leave and contained a selection of floating voters and an even spread who supported voters.

However, I reckon that there was an absence of the disgruntled, disillusioned with politics, Brexit-supporting voter. I grew up in a poor post-mining community and know that most people voted Leave. They were disengaged with politics because politicians have not listened to them or engaged with them since the 80s. These were the people ignored during that campaign with most polls predicting Remain but political engagement in them was been reignited by Brexit. I feel that they have again been ignored here and there views aren't necessarily reflected across the polls or in these debates as they're the kind of people that don't engage with these formats. If they have been politically reignited by Brexit, my hypothesis is that many of these people will turn out and vote Conservative (despite a lot of them being from traditional Labour areas) next week because they feel that May/Conservatives will get the 'job done' on the kind of Brexit that they want.

The people that are supporting Corbyn/Labour seem to be what I would call the 'intellectual left'. University students, Guardian readers etc. I know I'm simplifying this as some people have remained 'Labour through and through', but I don't see overwhelming support from their traditional supports who I have described above. I don't think Labour have done a good job with regaining their support and I do think they'll be more tempted to vote Conservative to sort out Brexit. "Take back control".

Just a thought but it's the main reason I'm not being complacent about the polls.

(I also think that if we do get a Conservative government this demographic in 5-10 years will look back and realise that Brexit wasn't the 'ultimate solution' they've possibly dreamed it to be and that the real control that they wanted to take back was the fact that they've been ignored by politicians across the board for 30+ years to the point where there are Foodbanks, multi-generational unemployment etc. - I think a Conservative government will really screw over this demographic and that's probably one of the main reasons I won't be voting for the Conservatives).

All in all, my best-case scenario/prediction is a hung parliament I think.

Just some opinions but would love to hear what people think. It's a fascinating and crucial moment in British politics/history. I'm absorbed to the point where I actually dreamt that there was a hung parliament last night and the Conservatives formed a minority government. Weird. #toomuchpoliticsbeforebed


edit: tl;dr - I'm not convinced by the polls and still fear a May victory

 

Take what you want from this given it's source, but on the Guardian podcast yesterday the argument was made that Brexit really isn't the issue a lot of people are caring about in this election. Generally, it seems there's a mood that as important as brexit is, the fact it is being done is enough for voters. Support is moving away from the Lib Dems who are looking to frustrate/slow down the process, but provided brexit is actually being carried out they don't really mind who does it. I take it with a pinch of salt, but the fact that brexit is on the agenda regardless means that as an issue of voting it doesn't really matter as much, and issues like the nhs and the state of social care take precedence because in that case there is a more binary option on offer- cuts or no cuts.

 

That's a really interesting perspective. You could take it one way and say it's still ignoring the people I identified as being ignored. Or it could be that they are correct and that this politically awakened and previously ignored demographic is has stayed awake and is attentive to the cuts being made to the NHS and the state of social care. A third perspective could be that they got what they perceived was a needed change (ie. Brexit) and have disengaged again from the political debate and either won't vote or will return to their traditional voting strategies (Labour).

From what I've seen on the ground I'm still going to argue that the first perspective will have a role to play in the outcome of the election - as I've said, I'm hearing a lot of support for Labour (and progressive parties) from the 'intellectual left' (which the Guardian would fit into) but not much at all from the 'traditional working class'. However, I'm happy to be proven wrong.

And I definitely agree with the point about the LibDems. Their emphasis on remaining no matter the cost is definitely hampering them. It's like they've forgotten to listen and taken an entrenched 'we are right and believe we should remain' perspective with the hope all remainers would turn to them. Not worked at all. Shame. I think Tim Farron is a decent person but this has been a misguided direction.

I guess we'll find out next week!

 

I can't tell if this is the perfect storm or not

 

truly nothing can go well for the conservatives at this point

 

And yet they might still win, this is gonna be interesting

 

You'd be surprised how big of a deal the old people that don't keep up to date constituent is. There's a large portion that read the daily mail and that's about as much contact as they have with the outside world. I know this because my grandparents are those kinds of people. I just don't want to count my chickens, etc.

 

yeah no i'm def very cautious to predict a win or anything too close to one but just narrative wise they keep getting hammered. might not mean anything but to whatever extent it does, it can't be good for them

 

I think Labour has always capitalised online and the Conservatives have just not bothered to rectify that much because they're still winning elections. I mean this is on another level because of the level of grassroots support Labour has gained since the last election so it's definitely helping, but still.

 

Today I think I can honestly say I'm starting to feel optimistic about this election - sure Corbyn won't win outright but six weeks ago it looked like a home-run for Theresa May. The way Labour, and particularly Corbyn, have tightened the gap is extremely exciting and shows that maybe all is not lost. A hung parliament might actually come to pass.

Also, when the Guardian notification flashed up about Farage today, I literally laughed out loud. If that rat gets dragged down with the ship that would be just too delicious.

 

Can absolutely relate to both of these feelings. I had an exam today specifically on Voters and Elections and coming out of it to the notification about Farage put the biggest shit-eating grin on my face. After all of the shit he put our country through he deserves to be locked up and thrown away forever.

 

If guns were legal here, I imagine there would be a lot of Conservative Party strategists that want to put a bullet in their heads right now. It almost beggars belief.