UK and Europe World • Page 12

Even a small win for the Conservatives (which I think will happen) will feel like a defeat to them considering the state of play six weeks ago.

 

Absolutely. It's brought me great joy to see May floundering on her campaign. It's funny, I had always held Corbyn at arms length before this election, but I actually feel like I'm excited by a politician for maybe the first time in my life. He's gone from strength to strength through this campaign.

 

I just don't understand her thinking here? Is it arrogance that she thinks it won't hurt her? Is she so scared of a gaffe that she thinks it would look better for her to shirk all these opportunities to make her case?

 

The latter. Not enough people listen to the program for a strong performance to get much coverage, but if she's rubbish, everyone will hear about it. Basically guaranteeing small amounts of negative coverage vs risking a large amount of negative coverage.

 

Since I'm seeing this being used against Corbyn's policies:

Which is correct. But accordiņg to the IFS, they pay less than 12 % of their income whilst the rest of us contribute up to 40%.


Figure 3:
Tax revenues: where does the money come from and what are the next government’s challenges? - Institute For Fiscal Studies - IFS

 

RIP democracy. With Brexit happening too. We've given power to essentially just one political party. We're actually screwed.

 

Wait what happened

 

It's just a prediction and could (hopefully) be wildly inaccurate. I think just seeing it laid out like that made me realise how bleak the future could be if it's so one-sided (for any frankly any party).

 

Only one poll is within 3%, guess the average is still more like 8-9. And they're is probably also issues with the labor vote clustering in certain regions.

A few weeks ago people were saying it was quite likely conservatives would get 390+ so I guess this is better than that?

 

And there goes my optimism...

 

This is why I'm cautious about all polls...

 

Last tweet and then I'll stop I promise

 

Jezza!!!!!

 

Also, will the charging of Mackinlay have any effect on Tory numbers? I'm just asking, because I don't know how important he is in the grand scheme of things.

 

He's not a household name or anything, I mean I knew the Tories had South Thanet but I didn't even know his name before today. I'm guessing this will be all over the 6 o'clock news though so it will probably still hit the Tories' share of the vote on June 8th, at least in that particular constituency anyway.

 

The significance of this seat is that it's the constituency Nigel Farage contested and lost in the last election. I can imagine to the UKIP faithful that converted to the Conservatives, the idea that the party effectively cheated to unseat their idol will be a tough pill to swallow.

If Corbyn can capitalise on this in tonight's Question Time, I could see it having an impact. If not, it still may.

 

That's right, but I can't see hardcore UKIP voters liking anything about Corbyn. They're looking for someone who will blame immigrants for every problem in society and Corbyn (rightly) won't do that. I'm worried UKIP are now best placed to take the seat.

 

It might not be about voting for Corbyn but about remaining with UKIP, or not voting at all. Any vote that isn't going to the Conservatives is a good thing if it isn't harming Labour.

 

It'd be great that the Tories have one less seat, but I'd still be gutted if UKIP won a seat outright. A UKIP MP will just vote with a Tory government on pretty much every issue anyway. I was kind of hoping UKIP would disband altogether after this election but if they win a seat that will be enough for them to hold on. Hopefully somehow Labour will win South Thanet lol.

 

Oh I wasn't thinking about South Thanet, as much as it effects that seat I was thinking of the wider implications. Even if UKIP voters wouldn't have been able to vote for Farage, the fact that the Tories have stopped a politician they look up to from being in power might make them feel they can't trust them. Doesn't mean they'll go to Labour but if it undermines the Tory vote in the same way Lib Dems undermined a lot of Labour votes in 2015 then I'll be happy.