General Politics Discussion VII [ARCHIVED] • Page 48

Vote for Biden y'all of course but he ain't gonna win. It's gonna be another four years of Trump anyway.

I'm not being pessimistic. We've been through this rodeo before. We know what's coming.

 

Frankly the idea that he’d do demonstrably worse in the general than Bernie is not borne out by any of the evidence we’ve seen thus far. It will be way too close for comfort either way

 

I'm onboard with this, but it's harrowing to think: after the past four days, indignant Bernie supporters have a lot more motivation to burn it down and/or stay home than they did in 2016. That primary was a heartbreaking, but ultimately unwinnable, campaign, even if you canceled out all the DNC's and media's dirty tricks. What just transpired over the weekend, OTOH, is as far as I can tell a coordinated move of unprecedented sophistication in our lifetimes in this context. I'm a numbers guy, so I can see that Bernie still wasn't anywhere guaranteed the nomination in a business-as-usual scenario (meaning Pete and Amy continue fighting at least through tonight, Biden endorsements only slowly pile on after that, etc.). But the party elite successfully executed a plan that tanked Bernie's odds from perhaps 50/50 to almost zero... and that was the sole and entire point of the plan. From the perspective of die-hard Bernie supporters, "rigged" isn't hyperbole to the same extent it was in April or May 2016.

I just don't see any good way out of this. Everything sucks, and I'm resigned to the real possibility that Bernie not only got fucked, but also spooked the party into a panic move that meaningfully worsened our chances in November.

 

I’m the wrong person to ask, but the people that just voted for him I guess have reasons. I’ve seen some on Twitter, I’m sure you can find the testimonials. He just carried the black vote in massive numbers.

 

What the fuck are you talking about? Shut the fuck up.

 

There's a very real possibility that Roe v. Wade is in danger now, god forbid the potential of Trump adding two more hand selected judges to the Supreme Court.

 

I just wish like... swing states like PA and Arizona and Wisconsin weren't all so late in the schedule. Those are gonna be the sates that matter.

Biden can turn out the vote in SC? Who cares we're losing it anyways.

Biden can turn out the vote in VA? Who cares we're winning it anywyas.

Michigan will be interesting next week. High turnout + Biden victory and I'll be more confident about his chances at winning.

 

I was telling everyone those centrist candidates would end up combining and either endorsing Biden or one version of themselves for six months. How is this an unknowable coordinated effort? It was literally what we knew was going to happen from day one when we added the numbers of their support up. 30% was never going to be enough, building a coalition is how you win the nomination for your party.

 

*stares affectionately at yellow vest*

 

I mean, I think it’s very obvious that that democratic establishment was not unaware what they were doing when the convinced the two people taking votes from Biden to both drop out and endorse Biden the day before Super Tuesday. It’s clearly calculated. I’ll bow out, I won’t speak again on your election. There were a lot of people around the world praying to see a swing to the left because that pendulum generally swings the same way for us eventually. It didn’t, and now clamouring to prove the DMC right that everyone will eat the shit they give and do it again four years from now sounds just fucking awful but I’ll stay out of it

 

I do think that Amy and Pete waiting so long to drop out helped Biden. They both softened Bernie up, and helped give Biden a bit of cover so the media focus wasn't all on him. I think if this had been like 2016 with just Bernie vs Biden from the start, Bernie would likely be in a better position than he is now.

I don't think it was rigged that way from the start by the DNC though. DNC isn't smart enough for that kind of play.

 

looks directly into the camera

 

Idk y'all, I know I should hate Trump, but I just can't anymore. He's just a cartoon clown in my eyes now. All politicians hurt and kill people, I can't even be mad about that anymore. I'm so desensitized and emotionally vacant and I can't even articulate why. It's too hard. I've made it this far in his presidency, I can't help but think maybe it's not as bad as we all think it is. I know there are people being hurt by him but-- it barely phases me anymore.

I hope Biden nominates libs to the Supreme Court, expands healthcare coverage, fixes the border crisis, pushes for climate reform. But I don't think any of that will happen to a meaningful extent. And I'll just have to face the beginning of my adult life knowing I'm fucked.

I'm gonna vote for whoever the democratic nominee is. But it won't be an Anti-Trump vote, which is the platform the party is riding on. I don't know what I'll be voting for. I just hope it ends this deep discomfort inside of me.

 

Definitely, 1v1 woulda helped Bernie, the fact Biden was soft was **why they all got in the race** as the centrist dem trying to grab Biden’s lane. Then Biden won SC. Overwhelmingly.

 

Remember that last debate where Amy, Pete, Biden, and Bloomberg piled up on Bernie???????????

Remember the constant attacks constantly from the other campaigns on Bernie??????

Listen. I don't think that's directly the reason - this is chaos - but you can be dang sure that them staying in the race this long definitely softened Bernie up.

 

Big picture on paper, yes, I agree. But the reality on the ground the past few weeks was everything breaking the way Bernie needed it to for a real chance. Sure, it was reliant on almost ideal vote splitting and keeping others just under viability, but the bandwagon effect that resulted from his success was snowballing. Pete and Amy dropping out 1-2 days *before* ST to endorse Joe doesn't make much sense absent a widely-coordinated stop Bernie effort, and probably made all the difference today.

 

I think I said this before, I don't know its 1am and i am tired af, but if Bloomberg drops out tomorrow, which seems increasingly likely, Warren needs to drop out and full-on endorse and work with Bernie. Make it a two way race. Cause if Bloomberg drops out and Warren continues to do her own thing, Biden will walk right into the convention poised to be the nominee.

 

yes, that’s literally the point of endorsements; to maximize effectiveness.

bernie did it when it helped him, biden did it when it helped him. that’s the point of doing it!

 

Right. But it was because they legit thought they could beat Biden. I really don't think it was the DNC going "okay lets shove all these clowns into the clown car to make it easier on Joe". I think the world is just dumb and people are just dumb so while I think a lot of people like Kamala or Booker or Warren could've had a chance in a Biden vs Sanders vs XXXX race, because there was definitely an appetite for a "Not Sanders or Biden" candidate, its just there were too many candidates and they all beat each other up and that had the side effect of helping Biden.

 

The math is iffy here. Because if Bernie can only win with a plurality, which seems very likely now, how does that happen in a two way race?

 

Maybe I just dont understand the way primaries work enough, but with everything written in here it seems to me like Biden has this in the bag at this point.

Genuine question, is it really over for Bernie at this point or are these just knee jerk reactions?

 

The centrists were going to form up behind whichever centrist was in the clear lead to take out bernie.

Not sure if Bernie could of got any effective endorsements from rivals like Pete and Amy are too opposed to him idiologically.

An alliance with Warren seemed likea burned bridge ever since that ''he said she said'' leak.

Hope she drops out and the race is salvagable.

I keep losing faith in this country.

 

yes .. it’s .. a ... primary ...? they’re trying to win? they executed a better super tuesday plan. voters chose them.

how we respond is so much more important than talking about how all the moderates realized they were stronger together than apart; which is fucking elementary level shit

 

Depending on how Cali plays out and the margin. It’s very close. Biden should be slightly favored, a contested convention is the most likely outcome, Bernie has a shot and isn’t in a place to fold

 

Biden’s gonna win Maine