General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 2117

Bootygag rising in NH, very great stuff and not terrible at all

 

Honestly I love how much Pelosi can piss off the right by doing dumb things like this.

If only she would piss them off this much from her policies too

 

I hate this planet

 

I'm starting to weirdly think Bernie could win SC by double digits idek

 

On one hand, his potentially robbing Bernie of commanding frontrunner status as the only thing standing in the way of a clear Bernie sweep of IA/NH is infuriating.

However, I'm still convinced Pete is a paper tiger who probably can't actually win the nomination. If Biden crumbles and Pete takes total control of the establishment lane, it feels like a big opportunity for Sanders/Warren. Suddenly, Bernie would seem to be the top choice for POC based on current polling... poetic justice for the tidal wave of disingenuous BS from party insiders in 2016 when he struggled in those primaries.

 

Pete’s # is still within MOE in both polls released today of NH. So, no real “movement” that’s been codified yet.

 

Pete just lost .2% randomly

 

is there actually a second delegate threshold? Or has the 15% threshold already been applied?

 

What do you mean? For state wide delegates, he’ll have to be over 15%.

 

Fuck. Sometimes I don’t like being right. But, it looks likely now.

 

So you need both 15% to be viable at each caucus and get state delegates *and* 15% to be viable statewide and get national delegates?

What happens to people who are under 15%? Do the delegates just get proportionally divided up by the people who reached 15?

 

It takes a while to verify data. Make sure it matches paper votes. This kinda stuff is just silly. It’s midnight there, they’ve been working all day to verify, we’re over 70%, the data is representative, and, for the conspiracy minded: it matches Bernie’s internal data which is why they’re not calling foul. Like, do these people think they’re just not going to include these places and report on them? Quite a few were reported on by the press already as well, I have the results in a spread sheet for them.

For example, currently missing in the IDP numbers:

 

Correct to both afaik.

 

I had Bernie taking these pretty handily.

 

The outcome of Pete/Sanders taking the same national delegates (my estimate is 13) and Warren ... maybe getting 10 ... is where I’m at.

 

I am pretty confident in projecting Sanders is gonna win the popular vote.

 

lmfao

 

Have I said how much I fucking hate caucuses yet?

 

yeah I'm reading this: Iowa Democratic Delegation 2020

I *think* from what its saying though, they award some delegates for each part of Iowa, and some statewide. You need to be 15% statewide to get statewide delegates, but you only need to bet 15% in a region to get that regions delegates.

So Biden could still probably get a couple of delegates from CD1 even if he drops below 15% statewide, and Amy! might get a delegate from CD4