General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 1047

What a fantastic strategy.

I think you underestimate how many people actually like what he’s doing, and how much incumbents have an advantage.

 

Again, looking for where I said "They won't move at all". But when you have an 8 point lead, you can lose 3-4 points and still be in decent shape. Hillary, at this time last year, only had a 5 point lead, with a massive amount of undecideds. And, as the article points out, never broke 50% like Biden did.

Honestly want to see the 15 polls if you have a link handy because all the poll aggregators I can find only have two Biden/Trump polls, the one from December and the one from two weeks ago.

 

Biden has already proven to be an easy target in this primary, his rebuffs are poor, and the attacks are only going to get stronger once he's the nominee. No way he maintains in the polls, and i don't trust anti-trump sentiment will be enough to get him over the line. We all assumed it would be enough in 2016, and I'm yet to be convinced things will be different now.

 

Wrong. If you lose 4 points, and cut your numbers in half, you’re in big trouble with trend lines and are not in decent shape at all.

Quite a few are internal polling.

 

if biden is the nominee trump gets reelected there's no way he doesn't

 

How any one could think differently is beyond me.

 

I am definitely not putting any hopes into this basket at all. I was simply saying I don't necessarily agree with the statement that not a single person who didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 would ever be motivated to vote for Biden in 2020. I hope this isn't the case just in case Biden is ultimately the candidate.

This may sound idealistic and naive and corny, but just in general in life I don't think it is good to let fear motivate your actions if you can help it. Just choosing Biden as the candidate based on some odd notion of his electability because you are afraid of Trump getting another term when there are (so many - HA!) other much better candidates whose policies you actually like and believe in is sad.

 

Perhaps, but if it's more a MOE thing and it evens out to 4-5% early on and stays there next summer/fall, much less worrying than if it continues to drop and drop and drop until election day.

Well, can't have a discussion about poll numbers if it's become a "you can't see the evidence I have". Only internal polls I've seen have been those Trump ones that leaked back in March that were....very bad for him against Biden. So I can only go off what I've seen.

 

I just wanna point out that Biden has been performing far worse than I had assumed or thought he would by this point. His performances in the debates have been abysmal, his reactions to issues and controversies that have arisen have been horrendous and atrocious pretty much across the board.

 

Sundowning is a helluva thing

 

Even six months ago, I would've said Biden is the safest bet from an electability standpoint and quite likely to win. That was based on the VP/2016 iteration of Biden, who I think was/is more electable than HRC for various reasons. i'm surprised emailgate hasn't been mentioned once in the past couple pages. Even if that accounted for the entire gap between them, it's still significant (probably enough to change the 2016 outcome).

With the benefit of seeing his 2019 debate performances, plus his high-risk strategy of swinging for the bipartisan fences to distinguish himself even from other corporate-leaning candidates like Kamala and Pete, I've changed my mind a lot. I'm now terrified that he'll squeak through the primary on sheer inertia and humiliate himself in the general campaign. His mental acuity strikes me as deteriorating fast.

 

Yeah I said it the other night but go watch a speech from him even as recent as like 2015, it's a night and day difference. I think I posted here in 2016 that Biden was starting to sound a little old to me when he was campaigning for HRC......I'm not saying it to be mean or anything but I think you can really just look at when Beau's death happened, look at Biden before and after that, and see how obviously it took a toll on him mentally.

I mean shit, think about Joe Biden 2012 VP debate and contrast that with what we've seen in these first two debates. Now part of that is he's being attacked from the left and we all agree with those attacks so they seem way more impactful to us than they do the boomer and other older Dem voters, but...dude cut Paul Ryan up and now he's all Joe30330.com

 

This is key. The set of partisan Dem Bernie haters is almost entirely a subset of people who are absolutely guaranteed not only to oppose Trump, but to show up and pull the lever for whoever the opposition is. Whatever electoral downside there is to nominating Bernie, it consists entirely of scaring moderates and traditional swing voters. The #resist crowd will shut up and like it, when push comes to shove.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting the net risk of nominating Bernie is necessarily smaller than other candidates... just that it's not worth worrying for even half a second about the "angry female Hillary stans" and such.

 

Biden being "electable" is basically

 

I can’t imagine a bigger red flag.

 

Even if Biden beats trump, it’s gonna nearly ensure Tom cotton 2024 or something worse

 

I can't believe that date went anywhere other than her saying she had to go to the bathroom and then running to her car.

 

Just noticed Joaquin Castro is trending on twitter and this is why:

The right wing is very upset with him "Doxxing" people even though people that contribute this much becomes a matter of public record lol

 

This is awesome.

 

lmao read the replies and see how ignorant people are. Someone mentioned suing for 'libel'


I do gotta say I don't quite know where to find the list of individual donors by state/zip code. I tried using open secrets but couldn't find it.

 

We certainly can. I can go off what I’ve seen and the historical evidence. You can pretend it doesn’t exist if you want. If you wanna believe he’s up 8 in Ohio go for it. I’m confident he is not.

 

She’s so good