2023-2024 NFL Season Thread • Page 2068

Moving projections are meaningless

Of course when a big play happens it increases the expected points

You’re not predicting anything at that point, you’re just guessing and changing that guess with new information in real time. You can do that without computerized models. It’s like fantasy football projections like I said

 

It's expected points added per attempt so it's judging team performance on a play by play basis based on the average result of the play in that situation. which is also very flawed, don't get me wrong, but like, if Trevor makes the greatest throw of all time and it's dropped, that hurts his EPA even though he did everything perfect.

 

Grew up in AZ mostly but was born in Jersey (but only lived there while my dad finished college so it wasn't like I was aware lmao)

 

1) Jacksonville Jaguars

—massive gap—

2) Baltimore Orioles
3) Baltimore Ravens

—massive gap—

3) New Orleans Pelicans
4) Maryland Terrapins football
5) Maryland Terrapins basketball
6) Washington Capitals

 

Locksley is the real deal. Probably aren't gonna win a title or anything and their division is at worst the 2nd best in football but super annoying team that ruins a contenders season then produces NFL talent is very realistic

 

1. Steelers


That's the list

 

1. Cleveland Sports Teams
2. Ohio State
3. Manchester United
4. WVU
5. VCU

 

My aunt is a huge WVU fan. Since they moved away like 15 years ago or whenever I haven't really kept up with them but the Geno days were incredible

 

Wow just go burn down a forest why don’t you

 

1. Being right
2. Being funny
3. The Patriots
4. The Celtics
5. The Bruins
6. The Padres
7. Teams I don’t like losing

 

WVU had a good run going for Pat White, Steve Slaton and Noel Devine to Geno Smith and Tavon Austin.

 

Oh yeah pat white!

 

1. Indianapolis Colts

2. University of Georgia football
3. Atlanta Braves

4. Seattle Kraken
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. University of Georgia basketball
7. Seattle Mariners

 

Ok this weirdly reminded me that I’m pretty sure I lost my virginity the night Tavon had that crazy game against OU

 

Sorry

 

MICHAEL

 

But this just gets more and more confounded by alternate variables.

1) Some coaches are better at designing certain types of plays and worse at others.

2) even though most teams run like 60%-70% of the same concepts as the rest of the league, every team’s “take” on that concept is slightly different. For example, Gus Bradley’s cover 3 is press coverage oriented and plays bump and run, while the Eagles cover 3 is more about backing off and keeping plays in front of them. Different plays work better or worse depending on what style of cover 3 it is. And that’s just one coverage shell, not including blitzes which have way more variety.

3) some players are better at executing certain plays than others - and that doesn’t blanket-statement make them better or worse!

4) situational football is probably the biggest factor here. Certain plays work against certain other plays, better in some game situations than others. It’s more about game flow and what the opponent expects and how much the element of surprise factors in, than anything else. And some coaches call plays that SET UP certain types of other plays in a way that’s really hard to defend, because the rest of their gameplan forces the opponent to call defensive plays that are bad against that particular secret weapon play.

To me, what EPA per play describes, based on your explanation, is how often the coaches are calling plays that 1) their team or that player excels at 2) that are called at a good time when it will be most effective. It’s more of an OC stat than anything, which explains why it overrates Brock Purdy and underrates Trevor Lawrence.

It means SOMETHING for the extreme players - if you’re always top right like Mahomes, that’s a good sign you’re good at everything. If you’re always bottom left like Zach Wilson, that also means you’re sucking at everything. But for everyone in between, it’s a lot more nebulous and says more about game flow than player skill.

 

Will someone look at the last couple of pages of the Transit thread and tell me if I’m losing my mind

 

"Expected Points is based off the notion that not all yards gained in football are of equal value. For example, a 5-yard gain on third-and-3 increases a team’s chances of scoring much more than the same 5-yard gain on third-and-10. While both situations would reflect a gain of five yards in a traditional box score, the first would result in a first down and continue the drive, while the other would likely force the team to punt on fourth down. Expected Points attempts to quantify this difference in value by relating each play to how much it increases (or decreases) a team’s chances of scoring."

 

Now, if we looked at EPA/play in VERY SPECIFIC situations - for example, flood offensive play calls versus cloud defensive play calls on third and medium to long - that would give a very good frame of reference for which QBs excel at which plays. But without getting that granular. It is not a precise stat

 

Still the only qb to start and win 4 bowl games. The move to the big 12 kinda sucked from a fan perspective because there are still no real rivalry games. At least for me since I don’t go there anymore.

 

damn josh fucks???

 

Only on Saturdays

 

Seriously

 

Watching that highlight reel is basically as good as sex.