2019-2020 NFL Season Thread [ARCHIVED] Football • Page 677

But the difference is that in almost every other position, there is evidence that they can play well deep into their second contract. At RB, there just really isn't anymore.

 

I think you’re forgetting just how important Cooper Kupp was to the offense. He was someone Goff looked to a lot on third downs and in the red zone. Much of the Rams’ struggles down the stretch of the season can be directly attributed to how McVay did not pivot from his heavy 11 personnel scheme. McVay found himself in unfortunate 3rd and long situations because of how poorly he called plays on early downs. He should have been creating layup throws for Goff, but he wasn’t and was more concerned with running the ball with an injured Gurley or CJ Anderson and that led to 3rd and long situations.

As for your last sentence, top tier RB or not, running the ball does not effectively set up the pass. Look at the Lions for example. They were a top 15 pass offense in several metrics in 2016 and 2017, but their pass game plummeted when Patricia came in and started focusing more on inefficient runs, and Stafford had one of his least efficient seasons as a result. You’re a Jaguars fan. Look at how inefficient that offense has been despite pouring significant resources into Fournette and the offensive line. Running the ball does not set up the pass. And now the Jags took away Fournette’s guaranteed money, which makes that draft pick look even more disastrous.

The Pats and Saints are frequently discussed as teams that are very efficient running the ball, but that’s because of how efficient they are throwing the ball to White and Kamara on early downs. The Pats and Saints take advantage of defenses planning for runs on early downs by creating easy layup throws for the RBs. The Chargers were one of the most efficient passing offenses in the leagues because of how much they implemented Gordon in the passing game this past year. Cam Newton had his most efficient season of his career because of how the Panthers implemented short and easy passes to McCaffrey on early downs instead of running the ball on early downs and forcing Cam into unfortunate third and long situations.

You may look at this and think that that’s a reason why teams should pay their running backs big contracts, but what it really shows is how passing can help set up the run, not the other way around. It’s also widely known that running backs are at their peak on their rookie deals and tend to begin to decline in their mid 20s, which is why the Chargers would be wise to trade Gordon away given his injury issues. While Gurley is still young, the Rams made a poor financial decision signing him to such an expensive deal considering they knew of his injury concerns when he came out of college. Now they have to pay the price, both literally and figuratively.

 

has Randall met his match?!

 

@CarpetElf’s Seinfeld gif also applies to me

 

That failure to adjust is because he had established comfort with Gurley. I feel like this is saying the same things that I’m saying - without Gurley a lot more pressure was placed on McVay’s passing attack. Which crumbled under the pressure and didn’t perform as well without having that strong rushing element to offset defenses.

Also, the Rams do have a solid group of TEs, it’s not like passing out of heavy personnel to hide whether you’re passing or running isn’t a strategy that can work sometimes. You don’t want to always run out of a close I form and always pass from pistol / shotgun, that makes you predictable.

The Jaguars and Lions are terrible examples.

The Lions are and have been one of the worst teams at running. Consider that last year, every time they ran for more than 120 yards, they won (4-0). When they ran for less, they were 2-12.

Leonard Fournette:
1) has legitimately spent more time off the field than on the field so far, so regardless what resources we’ve poured into him, we obviously can’t see the results while he’s hurt. Last year he played only FIVE full games. That’s why the offense has been inefficient, which contradicts you arguing we’ve been inefficient in SPITE OF him. No, we’ve been inefficient WITHOUT him. Having him on the field is a HUGE help.

2) when he’s on the field we absoLUTELY pass better. How else do you think we made the playoffs with Bortles throwing to tiny Dede Westbrook, an old Mercedes Lewis, and undrafted Keelan Cole? That’s a backup level QB and ALL backup level receivers. Bortles even had a 2:1 TD:INT ratio that year / his lowest INT total. You literally can’t explain that without conceding that Fournette was the focal point of opposing teams’ game plans - that was his first year on the team.

The Pats and Saints are two of the teams I’m talking about that have AMAZING QB and great offensive lines though. They directly fit my template for a team that can survive with RBBC, I already accounted for this. Of course you can open up the run if you have an elite QB. Not every team has that though and I think you’re incorrect to make this so binary / black and white. It works both ways. To say that running doesn’t set up the pass is to give the credit to Aikman for the 90s Cowboys and not Emmitt Smith. That’s just false considering their passing attack primarily relied on play action & Aikman literally attempted a lot fewer passes than runs.

One sets up the other depending on which aspect of your offense is a bigger threat - because it’s about, who the defense gameplans against. If they are focused on your QB then they aren’t coming out in run stopping formations - hence Roger Craig putting up insane numbers on SF. Likewise, the opposite is true, and I don’t think we can dismiss that side of the argument just because Gurley and Fournette have injury issues. Injuries are kind of a separate thing because it’s a risk to bet on ANY injury prone player, that rhetoric is not limited to running backs.

Besides, you can’t use throwing to RB as an excuse why RB aren’t useful. That’s just another reason why they ARE useful. Brees literally wouldn’t be a record breaking QB if he didn’t keep the defense off balance by having them chase RB routes. Teams would just drop vertical more often and frustrate him if he took that element out of his game. He and Brady throw to RB more than anyone else. And last I checked, James White is not on a rookie deal. White / Kamara are not just bodies in the room - they are two of the best receiving backs in the league. If you think they could do that with just any RB you are quite mistaken.

Essentially, passing short to RBs sets up the deep pass too!! That’s two ways RBs work like WD40 to loosen up a defense. Hence why you should resign a very good one who can do both. Because again, it forces the defense to simplify their looks so they can defend both the pass and the run... and it forces them to drop fewer defenders in deep coverage, to avoid getting bullied at the line of scrimmage. Which creates FAR more vertical passing opportunities & favorable matchups.

We can’t look at this discussion from an offense-only perspective. An offense is only as good as the defense allows them to be. If you reduce the number of options a defense has against you, you greatly increase the likelihood that you can control the flow of the game and force them to try to keep up.

**Also mid 20s is a reach. I don’t agree at all that RB decline by 25-26. RB are usually good through their first extension as well. I just wouldn’t extend one into their 30s. Give them 4-5 years and then let them walk at 28-29 years old.

 

*scrolls through a 45-paragraph Randall response*

No, no he has not.

 

I’ll respond to the rest later when I have time, but this is proving my point because you still fail to mention the loss of Kupp and you highlight why the Rams were starting to be exposed because McVay wouldn’t pivot from his initial scheme. McVay developing too much comfort with Gurley says more about McVay than it does Gurley and you highlighting why he didn’t incorporate his solid TEs more explains that. They were exposed by the Patriots because of poor coaching and, as a result, poor QB play, not because Gurley was hurt.

 

I think acting like RB aren’t very important and that teams can just replace them every 4 years is a “popular opinion” but that doesn’t make it correct

That strategy only works for the few teams who pass well enough to not need a good RB. Patriots fans especially (Dave... this dude Wayne on my Facebook... etc) all think that every team should do things their way because it’s how they win... and they aren’t cognizant of the fact that most teams really CAN’T imitate that strategy at all with a less dominant passing attack. It just wouldn’t work the same way.

 

No one is arguing that RBs aren’t useful. We’re arguing why you shouldn’t allocate a large amount of your cap to them. I’m arguing against the point you made where you said having a top tier RB helps you establish the pass more, but I used the Lions as an example or a team that didn’t have a top tier RB but had a good passing game before Patricia came along. Again, running the ball does not set up the pass. The opposite is far more efficient.

 

You’re kind of ignoring my entire argument to just reiterate dogma. I explained to you from a strategic perspective how running the ball sets up the pass. Are you really making the argument that it’s not easier to pass against 8 men in the box? Thats just not understanding the whole point of running the ball to begin with.

The opposite is NOT more efficient when you don’t have a top QB. An average QB is just gonna struggle if you try to play pass-first and you allow defenses not to take the run seriously.

The Lions are a bottom 5 running team. They are OBVIOUSLY not a good example of how running can help your passing attack. If anything they are an example of how much a good QB can struggle when he doesn’t have a good RB to divert the defense’s attention.

 

So Dak Prescott sets up the run for Ezekiel Elliott and not the other way around? PFFFF. Okay.

 

I can’t wait for Darnold to play better because teams have to devote multiple defenders to LeVeon Bell, and people to give Darnold ALL the credit

 

what the fuck is this

 

Again, I gave you an example of Stafford, who is not a top QB and you keep ignoring it so you’re being willfully ignorant.

Did you know the Cowboys blew a lot of leads last year in third quarters because of how frequently they went run-run-pass. They won several one-score games last year because of fourth quarter comebacks, which is a dangerous way to play because they stopped passing as aggressively as they did in the first half in favor of just boring and predictable play calls in the third quarter.

Darnold isn’t going to play better because of Bell. He has Gase and Loggains as his coaches. He’s doomed.

 

frrrrrrrrrrrttttttttttttt

 

*laughs in Belichick*

 

Holy hell

 

I did not ignore it. I directly addressed it. Twice. You can’t use the WORST EXAMPLE and act like that makes your point. I just edited this in the last post before you responded:

Cowboys are a way better example tbh

They probably wouldn’t have that lead to begin with if Dak didn’t get to pass against 7-8 man boxes and man coverage looks all the time. As I’ve been saying, teams cannot call deep zone plays, intended to shut down medium and deep passes, against the Cowboys very often... because Elliott would gash them up the middle all day. They are forced to call plays that are easier for Dak to read.

Teams CAN call those complex zone plays against the Lions though because their RBs aren’t a threat.

We’ll see. I would put money on it.

 

The Lions are not the worst example though. I am directly showing you how they were still able to pass efficiently and be a top half of the league passing offense despite failing to run the ball efficiently. Now they began to run the ball better (if you can call running Blount over Kerryon for half of Kerryon’s season running better) and their pass offense plummeted. What don’t you understand?

 

Use the Lions as an example of doing anything well and you lose me

 

That has nothing to do with their pass offense plummeting. They were 4-0 when they ran the ball well. That statistic directly debunks your point. The times they continually lose are the times when their offense lacks balance. When they run the ball well, they are definitively a better team.

 

Like you’re making a false correlation. The games Kerryon Johnson went off are the games they WON.

 

Since you care so much about records, is that why they went 9-7 in the two years before Patricia and then 6-10 with him?

 

That just tells me Patricia sucks lol. They still didn’t “run the ball well” last year. I’m not sure how you think that’s relevant to this argument.

 

I’m not gonna argue with someone who actually thinks a team’s record correlated to how efficient they are in any metric. The Dolphins finished 7-9 but they sure didn’t play like their record would indicate