2016-2017 NFL Season Thread [Archived] Football • Page 85

Yeah i was hoping to nab him for 7-8 million, because lets face it Allen Robinson is the big dog and probably our best player period, so its hard to justify 10 for a secondary weapon. But I like that Dave Caldwell highlighted the fact that he is one of the most hardworking guys on the roster, has played though numerous injuries both seasons, and has been a "consummate professional" since he walked in. He was paid because he is a good employee who works for it and stays focused. He sets an example for the "anyone can compete and help the team" culture they're trying to establish and it makes sense.

I remember him destroying every first and second quarter of every preseason game in 2014 and not even knowing who the hell he was even though I paid a lot of attention to that draft season. For some reason I still doubted he'd be more than a slot guy but man that is a case where hard work pays off. From running excellent routes, to almost never dropping a pass after a butterfingers rookie season, to just learning how to maintain leverage and balance when shedding tackles after the catch, he has really shown eye popping improvement across the board.

 

Going to Connor Barwins benefit concert tonight. Supposed to be a bunch of Eagles there. Gonna get the real #scoop on Chip Kelly.

 

Can you wear an I chip Kelly shirt?

 

Ima make Barwin rank his favorite Brand New albums

 

Get him on the chorus.fm podcast with drew lol

 

Scared of the contract that Brown will eventually get

 

If he gets exactly the Julio Jones deal (5yr/$71mil, $35+mil guaranteed), his cap #s would be about the same for those 5 years as they are this year and next on his current deal (between $12mil and $15mil). So, very doable.

Or they can take the Dez approach, take big cap savings in years 1 and 2, then the out years have cap hits of $16-18mil

 

What about decastro though?

 

Steelers have $40mil in cap space for 2017, and aside from Leveon Bell, most FA's are expendable. D-Will, Jarvis, Spaeth, Shamarko, wheaton, Harrison, etc. Dudes who will be retired or come back on short 1-2yr cheap deals.

That leaves Decastro, Timmons, and Bell to fill the remaining $35mil in cap space. Easily done. I bet DeCastro gets done in July, and Timmons probably does as well (more for restructuring reasons). They have the franchise tag after the season for Bell if neccessary. Brown and Bell get re-worked next February.

Plenty of room to extend Tuitt in there as well. And thanks to Bryant being dumb, we get to push his contract a year further (and 5th year tender Shazier)

 

I didn't mean it as "games are rarely shootouts for Smith," but that games are rarely shootouts in general. The average score total, both teams combined, is 43. Let's say to be defined as a "shootout" both teams combined have to score at least 60 points which I think is a fairly conservative definition but let's go with it. Only 12% of games have both teams combine for 60+. That might seem like a decent amount, it's a little under 2 games a year, but not all of those games are really "shootouts" because that isn't taking into account if the game is actually close. Games where it's 38-24 would be included.

I think you're really spinning this narrative too far. Jags defense sucked last year, but it was far from the only problem with the team. Let's say you give the Jags a win every time they score 24 points and a loss every time they don't. Jags record would improve from 5-11 to... 6-10. That's including giving two wins for two garbage time scores in the Chargers and Saints games. Chiefs record does drop a bit, but they're still 9-7.

Terry Bradshaw had the 5th best passer rating in the league in '75 when they won the Super Bowl, 2nd best in '78, and 8th best in '79. While he sucked in the regular season in '74, he only started 7 games and had a 95 passer rating in the playoffs that year as well. Elway only started winning Super Bowls when he started playing more efficiently. In '97 he had the 7th best passer rating, 5th best in '98. Roethlisberger certainly benefited from some very strong defenses. But my point isn't to say situational football isn't important, it is, I'm just saying we shouldn't overinflate it's importance. Yes when you're facing 3rd and 10 and 4th and 10 it's better to take the high variance/risky player because your odds are low to begin with, but there are far fewer 3rd and 10s and 4th and 10s than 1st and 10s and 2nd and 10s in a game/season. A player who succeeds in the latter situations has a lot of value as well, because he can avoid the 3rd and 4th and longs where your odds aren't great anyway.

 

I get how I may be exaggerating the point, but bad teams often require much more aggressive offense than the average or median team to recover from mishaps and keep up with the opponents' production. There is hardly any sitting on leads and controlling the clock, or being comfortable with settling for a field goal, it's make it happen on offense or lose. We may not be talking about "shootouts" necessarily - more so the idea that an offense or QB can't hedge risk or adopt any conservative, protective philosophy as well if they're always playing from behind. In a nutshell, the Jags had to call risky reads and play in attack mode far more often than the Chiefs. Alex Smith couldn't do it if the Chiefs had to play like that.

Bortles has shown a lot of ability to respond to adversity, and uses his versatility to make it hard for defenders to contain all possibilities when he needs to make a play. Sure, it still comes down to him making the right decision, but I see nothing but upward potential there. It takes somebody special to have top 10 yards and TDs in year two and not be a total bust under his circumstances - just ask Blaine Gabbert or any Browns QB the past 20 years. The front office supplied him with excellent weapons but no other part of the roster really materialized yet in 2015.

With Alex Smith, you know exactly what he is and what he will never be, a defense can bet that their safeties won't be challenged, and if they can limit a smaller pool of 15 or less yard passing options while applying pressure then they can shut him down. He invites a defense to get aggressive and while he beats poor defenses with misdirection, that's when the ones with good secondaries lick their chops. I would never bet on Alex Smith against a good defense if he had to play from behind - which, even if it may not happen but 12% or whatever of the time, it happens in the games that matter and that's the point I'm arguing from. If Alex Smith is a franchise QB and not just a stopgap then I feel sorry for the playoff games the otherwise explosively talented Chiefs are going to lose to those few teams who can put up points against them early. I mean, Marcus Peters pick sixes and Tamba Hali forced fumbles are the most likely paths to 30 points for them, as often as it happens that is not reliable. If the Chiefs had someone like Blake Bortles they could beat anybody, his INTs would hardly matter compared to his yards and TDs on a team whose defense was so good at getting the ball back themselves.

And here's the Skip Bayless/eye test version of my argument you will likely ignore:

I know you can probably bring up something from PFF or Insider about how Blake actually wasn't that impressive on 3rd and long and step on my dreams haha. But just from watching, Blake makes teams work HARD for every sack and his line is just that bad. The interceptions are less excusable but it is still significant that a lot of them come from behind in the late third or fourth quarter.

The stats will tell you he got sacked and picked under pressure but try to picture what an offensive line with Luke Joeckel as your LT and throwing against Dime in the fourth quarter down by 10 looks like haha. The defense holds all the cards, the pressure gets there before the WRs go 10 yards, he tries to anticipate the throw too early, it's a pick because one of those 6 DBs broke on the ball. Try to take into account that it usually takes 2 or 3 guys beating their blocks (and by association, total O line failure) to bring Bortles down because he consistently eludes the first one. Its HIGHLY impressive he even got the production he got when the rest of the team is clearly still in beta testing. He accelerates the Jaguars development because he can still produce and help the team much more than he sets it back, despite such poor chemistry on the O line and constant pressure to score points.

Is Alex Smith going to take a team's problems head on and still manage to lay the framework for higher expectations? I'd rather stick him on a team like the Jets with an amazing roster and tell him not to fuck up. And im not in the business of putting QBs who need a perfect roster above QBs who are resilient, who take responsibility if the offense isnt scoring with urgency, who chase after challenges and make do. The do-anything-it-takes mentality and the upward potential in a QB are more important to me than the ability to preserve the status quo.

Nah real talk though you destroyed my arguments, all great points. Good game.

 

Alex Smith v Blake Bortles argument

Only on this site...

 

They're polar opposites haha it's been interesting

 

1. Carnell Lake just said that Boykin has a degenerative hip condition and one leg is longer than the other. So he doesn't run well. Which is why he's been bouncing around so much.

2. Is he allowed to report something like this to the public? He told a group at a fantasy camp, and one of the participants released it to the public , but still weird.

 

That makes a ton of sense. I guess the mystery is solved.

 

@rlopezwfaa
Sources say NFL player Aqib Talib reportedly shot after fight at the V Live club in Dallas and is at Medical City hospital.

 

@JeffDarlington:I just spoke to Medical City Hospital, and they tell me Aqib Talib was released from the emergency room today and is no longer in hospital.

 

Dallas sucks

 

Dallas has a hospital called Medical City Hospital?

 

I would be mad but with how often I hear people around here say how much Houston sucks for no reason whatsoever...this city deserves it. Haha.

It actually has multiple locations in DFW apparently.

 

Both cities are inferior to San Antonio and vastly inferior to Austin.

 

Austin is great when you're a kid wanting to have fun and sucks when you actually have to make a living there but is still the best to visit by far

San Antonio is the worst

 

Screw all that. Jacksonville is where it's at

/cue everyone collectively laughing and saying "uh I'll pass"

 

I will say though that if you're gonna come to Florida, of the major cities Jax is the prettiest, has by far the least crowded beaches, the best local craft beer, and in general is going though a huge artistic movement right now both in terms of music and visual art. I came back home at the right time. There's been events going on and new bars/venues popping up downtown constantly which is weird for me because downtown was DEAD when I grew up here, total ghost town once the workforce went home. They've done a decent job giving it some life even though the population of the city hasn't grown much.

There's also like hardly any traffic backups unless youre going out to the suburbs, which has been awesome. I'm right across the river from the center of the city and really unless I'm going to the beaches (30 min away), everything I ever want or need to do is 10 minutes away.

Miami is probably better if you're a party animal which I'm not, I don't go clubbing, I like to drink a couple delicious brews and listen to indie rock (or local live music) and chill with 3 friends, so Jax's dive bar scene is pretty on point for me. Orlando is so overtaken by commerce and tourism that I don't know how people call it home. Tampa, I mean if you're gonna live in a city of 3 million people there are so many better ones. The rest of the state is hicks inland and old people on the beaches haha. Jacksonville is surprisingly cool for being a smaller and much less important Florida city.

Florida just in general doesn't have as much to offer overall as other states but that's why it's so cheap. Can't complain considering I have a way better living/practice space and have money to go out more often than I ever had in Maryland.

 

Tell the thread about your places of residence! Totally off topic offseason talk has officially begun.