Invasion of Ukraine • Page 44

https://www.newstatesman.com/the-business-interview/2022/08/sergei-guriev-interview-russia-economy

 

Things starting to get crazy over there; generally this guy has had pretty hardline Putin views, so this looks like the works of either Ukrainian or Western operatives

 

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/08/22...ukraine-war-rape-of-women-girls-men-and-boys/

 

I think they want talks/negotiations, but the bare minimum, for a long time, has essentially been full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. If the war had gone worse for Ukrainian, if the West hadn't helped them out as much as they have, they would have been forced to accept less by now. And Zelensky has stated that if the shame trial of UA soldiers takes place in Mariupol, in those cages we've seen, that any chance of negotiations is over. And now that the strategic initative is with the UA at this point, as the Russian army has basically been stopped in their tracks, with essentially no more hope for advance, as long as Western support keeps up at the rate it has been (I don't see it stopping anytime soon), and as long as Ukrainians themselves support the effort, and as long as Ukraine keeps winning on the battlefield/destroying huge amounts of Russian troops and equipment (I see the rate of this only going up), then Ukraine has no reason to call for negotiations.

 

https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/08/25/us-to-appoint-commander-of-its-operation-in-ukraine-soon-wsj/

 

One step closer to nuclear annihilation.

Great.

 

Personally, I think it's all bluster from the Russian side; I truly don't think they'd resort to using a nuke, as long as Ukraine/western forces didn't directly invade Russia itself

 

It only takes one misread radar screen to end the world. It nearly happened a number of times during the Cold War. A conflict like this with ratcheting tensions and an increasing military presence from all sides only increases the likelihood.

 

Oh the likelihood is going up, I don’t doubt that, but the statistical chance of it actually happening is still really low. The West is aiming to slow bleed the Russians (or think of the boiling frog example), rather than enable a giant push to finish the Russians off, as that would greatly enhance the chances of escalation. Ukraine is in a better spot than Russia in a slow bleed war, as long as Ukraine keeps getting Western support

 

And it’s been said by numerous defense officials that even if Putin did manage to strike with a nuke, the US/West wouldn’t respond in kind with a nuke, but something of lower magnitude, to decrease the chance of it turning into a tit for tat nuke battle