General Politics Discussion (II) [ARCHIVED] • Page 1212

not you too

 

i actually dont remember posting this hahaha.

 

78%. Knew it would play well.

 

Didn't watch. Didn't read. He's the FORMER gov of KY. I get the folksy shit but at least get a current official.

 

How he wins again is right in front of us and it's terrifying. And it's very popular.

 

I was across the street at Char Bar but I didn't know about that show until I was already home :(

 

i just remembered something - twitter. :) haha.

when it comes to MENA, follow the following people for actual info and discussion, and not the bullshit parroting and yawn worthy shit that i see from the ones that are posted in here. i have mentioned most of them before and have posted them in here, but many of these people speak up about racial inequality, women's rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and interfaith solidarity. important stuff that is desperately needed.

@hashafidh
@ramsincanon
@deadmanmax
@karlremarks (clever, and good jokes)
@londonassyrian
@abeerregretsall
@hindmakki
@monaeltahaway
@levantina_

this is for everyone who says they don't know how to help or what to do when they read my posts. that is really the least you could do. from these people, you will actually learn many things RE: MENA politics, religion, and culture. and if it sometimes makes you even slightly uncomfortable, it's probably supposed to. but don't worry, they're not right-wingers. hahaha.

thanks.

 

these numbers are meaningless without crosstabs of how much people support Trump. Seems more likely that speech watchers are already gonna lean towards supporting Trump.

 

Yeah there's gonna be huge inherent sample bias due to the nature of who bothered to watch the speech (largely Trump supporters) and the nature of people who prefer to just skim the text online or in the paper the next day (world weary folks like me). Also, even if there wasn't sample bias no way in hell do you get something that's quantitatively sound and worth showing anyone within a few hours of the speech occurring lol nice try CNN!! Solid scientific poll takes a few days to get a respectable sample size. They tell you the margin of error is +/-4.5% there, so according to some quick math their sample size is probably around ~480 people.

Sorry, I'm a stats/survey nerd and have been TRAINED to reject any and all opinion polls that are not QUANTITATIVELY SOUND

 

Donald Trump will never be even slightly presidential. Long ago I reached the point where I genuinely questioned the intelligence of anyone who could possibly support him but anyone on my timeline who had a positive reaction to this is officially stupid to me.

 

Even if there's a temporary surge in approval, I can see his cabinet wanting him to do more scripted stuff and him refusing. He'll be back to old Trump tomorrow.

 

looking at the replies

is this the guy on AP that always signed his posts "-Gunz"

 

They're not meaningless at all. Given his approval rating, 78% here is very good for him. Praise from all over the the speech. Ignore it at your own risk.

 

Eye roll.

 

If you're trying to unskew polls you are already on the losing side of the argument. Good luck.

 

What do you mean?

 

yes

 

Okay yeah my math was close, that CNN poll was of 509 people who said several days ago they were planning to watch the speech. Don't care what anyone else says, that is not a representative sample, and people who planned to watch Trump's speech multiple days in advance are for sure going to be more pro-Trump than the average voter. Notice also that any kind of mention of party ID/ideology of the sample set is conspicuously absent from CNN's description of the poll, which tells me there's probably a large conservative bias among the sample set. That doesn't mean the survey tells us nothing, but it certainly doesn't tell us anything beyond "people who already liked Trump still like Trump."

7 in 10 Speech-Watchers Say Trump Boosted Optimism - CNNPolitics.com

Cheap attempt by CNN to get their poll all over everywhere right away after the speech by having the sample lined up in advance. And it worked.

 

That's kinda what flash polls are.

 

That the "but ____" side of unskewing polls has a bad history. Yes, there are errors/bias to be aware of, but they're pretty good, we use them all the time for things, and they are good indicators of trendlines. Republicans always claim bias after they lose a poll, or a debate poll, and then look foolish, I don't think ignoring polls or trying to explain them away is smart.