2023-2024 NFL Season Thread • Page 179

Yeah I mean no one’s saying Etienne wouldn’t be a strong RB2 and a good value in the bottom third / top fourth

I just think people shouldn’t project an increase from last year’s production the way that we are projecting Trevor Lawrence to take another step forward with Ridley & some continuity

 

yeah your life would be markedly better

 

Oh shit true lol

he’s a dick so I tend to not think about him but yeah LeSean was sick

 

The efficiency of the Swift/Penny duo with Hurts and the OL is going to be absolutely bananas

 

is this a dig at elf

 

I’m def keeping Lawrence in the like 14th round because fuck it

 

ETN is going to have a better season and will be used less.

 

Speaking of RBs, why do people keep criticizing D’Andre Swift for an inability to stay healthy, leading to missed games, when he’s missed three, four, and three games in his three respective seasons in the league?

Do people not understand that injury rates at RB, let alone in the NFL, are…high? Dude has never even missed one month’s worth of games in a single season due to injury lol

 

Cuz people just care about fantasy idk

 

“He WaSn’T tHeRe FoR mE wHeN mY oThEr GuY wAs On A bYe!!!”

 

So you’re saying he’ll be more efficient? Because I agree with that, but it unfortunately does not matter in fantasy hah. I think the raw cumulative yards, TDs, catches numbers will be roughly the same

 

Would be cool if we could use yards per carry as a multiplier… but that would be very complicated considering you wouldn’t want it to influence the score much if it was based on a small sample size

 

Yards per carry is a bad stat

 

I think like any stat it can be misleading which is why stats must always be viewed through specific parameters / context

for example, don’t compare YPC across all running backs… compare YPC for feature backs, and then separately compare YPC for change of pace backs who aren’t asked to frequently run against 7 and 8 man boxes

 

Use multiple stats instead of just one as well

How many carries? What was their average yard-depth before first contact and what was their average yards after contact? These things all influence how impressive or how damning a YPC number is

 

I’d rather just watch the games or listen to the analysis of those who do that go to Pro Football Reference as the crux of my argument

A stat than can be heavily swayed by a handful big runs and goal line opportunities is not one I would ever want to rely on

 

Any RB who misses like 2-3 games multiple times will forever have the injury prone label and it’s lame, because I expect pretty much every RB to get hurt mid game and then miss at least 2 because it’s the nature of the position

 

Never forget when people took Jonathan Taylor over CMC last year because JT is healthy and CMC gets hurt

 

And Barkley!!

 

I still think the key is context. If YPC is being swayed that much by goal line opportunities (it would have to be a lot more goal line carries than the norm to influence a year-long average like that) , then that’s probably a short yardage back and YPC isn’t the most important stat for them anyways

Likewise, if YPC is being swayed that much by big runs (again, to influence a year long average it would have to be a much higher proportion of big runs to carries than the best feature backs already have with their 300+ touches), it’s probably a change of pace back who is used explicitly because of their explosiveness - which doesn’t mean they’d be as effective as an all around RB

 

I just watched a highlight video of Etienne and damn, I love him. He’s just fun to watch and at the end of day he passes my fun test and that’s what I want.

ALSO maybe just maybe with added ball security work he will indeed improve after his de facto (and good) “rookie season.”

 

Being fair and nuanced about what YPC actually MEANS in context is how you use the stat

it’s not a good way to just say any random runningback is better than any other random runningback, but you can compare apples to apples with it if you look at all factors

 

That and he'll be better in pass protection and receiving. But yeah, he and Doug have both said they want their backs to be more rested. Very excited to see what Bigsby can do behind a line that doesn't deserve to be tried for war crimes

 

But then when you see Jamaal Charles get 300+ carries and STILL average 5.8 YPC, or when you see Derrick Henry get used as a power back but still break off enough big runs to average 5.1 YPC, then that YPC stat becomes a really good measuring stick for how lethal they are