General Politics Discussion VIII [ARCHIVED] • Page 1009

I know it makes sense that they want to give to essential workers first or whatever but the idea of it being a contest is still very funny

 

trying to think of the last time i posted a take from a Bernie staffer and drawing a blank, so this is a weird deflection. Regardless, it doesn’t make sense. Dems won a presidential election there 8 years ago. A dem still wins statewide races there as of two years ago. You treating all dem candidates like they’re the same, instead of saying that some run better campaigns than others and acting as if this happens in a vacuum is dumb. It is a thing a person who doesn’t understand politics does. There is a reason Sherrod won by almost 7 points there in 2018 while all the other weak ass Dems got their ass beat. He ran a different type of campaign than the others did, one more similar to the type Obama ran to win there. Learn from that!

 

I do remember saying that and still agree with it, but it’s not something you can pour a lot of resources into. You make a one off campaign stop and use your data guys and girls to see if it moved the needle at all and if it’s worth giving it another go. That’s about where the Dems are with Ohio right now, it’s not a true swing state anymore. Maybe make an early stop there, see what the internals look like in the weeks after, and decide from there if you need to campaign there. My guess is, looking at the numbers of 2016 and 2020, and the demographic shifts and the growth rates in the “blue” areas, that 2024 and 2028 at the very least won’t be campaign in Ohio years.

I don’t think you’re gonna get someone as trusted as Brown in Ohio on the National ticket. Your best hope for Ohio becoming obtainable again is that the turnout for Trump is just an aberration and it’s more like a 2-3 point state instead of an 8 point state when he’s not on the ticket. But the right wing media bubble and Trump himself are going to continue the white grievance culture wars on TV and social media full force so I could definitely see the “hate Democrats” vote staying activated in 2024.

 

i would bet money that Sherrod wins by much much less than 7 points, and maybe even loses, if his race were in 2020 instead of 2018.

 

Diego Maradona once said he hated 'everything' from the US, and called President George W. Bush 'human trash'

I was as wowed by Maradona soccer highlights as much as anyone but I never knew this guy was so awesome

 

I mean, Tim Ryan is one of those “weak ass Dems” that still won his races too. I don’t think the implied “a progressive would win Ohio” logic is as sound as we’d like it to be.

 

Does Biden invest any money into Ohio prior to the last possible minute, or nah?

 

Yeah, abandoning the 7th most populous state in the country is stupid. And it's literally twice as populous as Colorado. Come on lol.

 

I don’t think anyone here simply said that a progressive would win Ohio. Depends on what you mean by progressive I guess. Sherrod Brown has a platform that appeals to the moderates and progressives. I don’t think anyone thinks someone like AOC would be winning Ohio at this point in time.

 

They were closer to winning the 2nd most populous state this year than the 7th. And the 2nd is still growing and will have even more electoral votes going forward while the 7th is being gained on fast by the 8th and 9th and both of those states are better Dem shots than the 7th.

Maybe Columbus’ growth with save Dem chances there in 2024 or 2028 but not sure coal country would come back in enough numbers to make it happen. Maybe those Trumpers that turned out all along the Kentucky/WV border spurn the 2024 candidate and don’t show up? How confident do we feel there?

 

I’m not saying you need to be a Bernie type to win in Ohio. If anything, I think I’ve stated in here constantly the left and Dems are incompatible since Bernie flamed out. I don’t even think of Sherrod as being particularly progressive, he just runs as a populist. And that resonates in Ohio. Obama was that. Trump was that. Clinton was not, and Biden was not.

when i say Richard Cordray and the 2018 Dem slate of Statewide candidates sans-Sherrod were weak ass Dems, i mean they ran a wet paper bag of a campaign and made no attempt to resonate with anyone. Because the party is ran by a failson who’d rather promote his House of Cards knock off political thriller books than build a statewide party. The DNC can either be like that or not. But Ohio deserves better, and it’s not a lost cause, and I’m willing to fight you over the stupid assumption that it is lol

 

But Brown is routinely seen as progressive and is the example everyone is holding up here. And Ryan is not, yet they perform similarly in an area that is shifting blue to red.

So do we think that section of Ohio will trust any random Dem who wants to help unions? Or do we think it’s more of a trust issue that goes back to the “yeah Congress sucks but not MY congressman, he’s cool” thing? I would bet on the latter being more true at the moment. Biden should do everything he can to help unions out, and maybe that’ll help stop the bleeding, but..not confident of that with a McConnell led senate.

 

It’s populism. It’s not progressive or moderate or conservative. It’s not about policy almost at all. It’s about rhetoric. And Tim Ryan actually runs on rhetoric more similar to Sherrod Brown’s than Hilary Clinton’s or Richard Cordray’s or Joe Biden’s!

 

still not quite over the fact that i had to vote for fucking cordray

 

Exactly. That’s why I keep saying that Brown has a platform that appeals to moderates and progressives. He’s not inherently a progressive, but the things he talks about and puts a focus into are things that the left care about as well as the centrists care about.

 

lol...I just don’t think, with all the other states that will matter and can be more easily won, that the DNC should be spending much time on Ohio in 2024. Keep the other “blue wall” states, expand outreach in Georgia and AZ, make NC your next big target....and then your next 4 targets are probably Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. And...that’s probably how I’d rank them in order of “where should we spend our money” tbh. Maybe Iowa and Ohio are tied actually. Iowa feels more swingy but by the numbers it’s not. I think it’s the gerrymandering of the congressional districts that makes Ohio seem the redder of the two even though it’s probably not.

 

Right now I see a ray of hope in Ohio in that the Trumpers hate DeWine for even acknowledging that covid is real and he’s constantly being criticized by the batshit crazy legislature. So here’s hoping the governor’s race doesn’t inspire a lot of right wing turnout and the dems run someone competent, because Cordray would still lose in that situation he absolutely sucks

 

I’ve been saying it for four years, but “i feel your pain and i will change things” performs better in Ohio - a state that’s been fucked hard - than “hey actually things are mostly fine just let me manage the system.” Ohio would be competitive if Dems ran that message again. But they won’t, because they don’t feel that way.

 

fair enough. But then you’re getting into tradeoffs, because as we’ve seen a populist message will attract some voters while turning off some others. And you gotta balance it right to not dampen your coalition’s turnout elsewhere. You’re gonna need those suburbs in AZ and Georgia and NC and...will they like a populist message?

I agree with @MysteryKnight that Brown is good at striking the right tone and he is prob my early pick in terms of who i want to lead the ticket in 2024. Which means it probably won’t happen, but...you know.

 

I don’t know much about Ohio but as an outsider i don’t see why it’s not more like Michigan or Wisconsin in that you’ve got a huge chunk of dem voters in cities that can tip an election when they show up. Is it just that Ohio’s rural areas are more heavily populated than similar states?

 

Is it possible that someone like Ryan goes for it if his district gets gerrymandered out of existence for 2022?

 

From what I understand population and voter turnout around Cleveland is down/disappointing as compared to Detroit.

 

Paying money to lose by more lol

 

I have deep concerns about the future of the Democratic Party specifically because they are trading off a working class base for an upwardly mobile suburban one. The suburban one is easier for them because they don’t make any demands of the party like a working class base does - simply don’t offend their sensibilities like Trump has been doing over 4 years. I think if Dems continue to cater more to suburbanites, they will continue to lose working class voters (including slides with Latino and black voters) because the needs of the two classes are not compatible.

Well, if suburbanites are going to be turned off by populist messaging from Dems like Sherrod or Obama, are they going to be turned off by progressive/left policies? If so, what use is the Democratic Party? Even if you accommodate them, if you can’t pursue a worthwhile agenda out of fear of pushing them away then why should i give a shit about that party?