General Politics Discussion VIII [ARCHIVED] • Page 533

That’s my guess too. Think it would be down on GOP side at a greater rate. Hoping for it

 

could also help the other runoff. Maybe get some people to split their vote

 

I mean, I know things are tilting slightly in Biden's favor, but I'm not sure why anyone would be throwing in the towel on the Trump side right now.

 

The people on the ground and professional trackers will have a clearer picture of how this is going and those on the Trump side can probably see the writing on the wall. It's obviously anxiety-inducing for us watching the numbers slowly come out but the professionals will have a clearer idea of how this is going to turn out.

 

some of y’all were on one last night huh

 

Watching compilations of dogs and babies on YouTube. Highly recommended.

 

"Voting for Trump is feminism"

 

I just looked at the 2016 numbers and realized that Trump gained 6 million votes and almost 2% in the popular vote in 4 years. Which is actually really kind of depressing. I know that the raw vote total is partially due to high turnout and very low 3rd party voting but he may very well pass Obama's 2008 vote total for the most of any candidate prior to this year. That's a lot of Trump people who will be hard to appease and who will still be around in 2022 and beyond. Sorry for the pessimistic post but while it looks like things are turning out ok-ish this time, I feel like the danger is by no means avoided, even if Biden is going to end up congratulating himself on "saving the soul of America"

 

What a first tweet to read.

 

PA summary:

"Trump and Biden are now separated by about 164,000 votes, with Trump leading. But the more than 460,000 outstanding mail ballots left to be counted are likely to lean heavily Democratic. And at least 116,000 of them come from Philadelphia, a very Democratic-leaning city where mail ballots so far have gone to Biden by more than a 9 to 1 ratio. If Biden wins those outstanding mail ballots by something approaching the margins he has been winning mail ballots statewide, those mail ballots should give him the lead statewide.

Still, there’s some uncertainty here, with different sources showing different numbers of outstanding mail ballots. The New York Times’ dashboard, for instance, may overestimate the outstanding votes in places like Philadelphia; its current estimate implies turnout for the two major parties in excess of 800,000, a sizable increase over the roughly 693,000 votes cast for major parties in 2016 at a time when lots of college students aren’t in town due to remote learning. That discrepancy could reflect a lag in adjusting for mail ballots that have already been counted. Or it could reflect provisional ballots — or the fact that mail ballots can arrive after Election Day, too.

And it’s hard to know how many total provisional ballots are out or how they are likely to break given all the voting by mail, although Biden won the large number of provisional ballots in York County, a GOP stronghold. The upshot: The votes are certainly out there for Biden to take the lead, and that’s my best guest, but there’s no guarantee. Caution is the word of the day."

 

Fulton to update vote count at 11 a.m., election chief says

 

How'd you sleep?

 

A pretty helpful tool for keeping up with this thread:

Skim over like 93% of the posts, only reading tweets (unless you immediately recognize it as a repost) & posts by the few users who are actually consistently right and/or funny.

 

everyone read my posts. always

 

Sorry my posts suck

 

The "no guarantee" is the real rub here.

Data people were talking about last night made it seem like Philly had like 200k votes left at least, and Biden could win just by winning Philly. But as far as I can tell actually looking my data, they've always been clear about the 120k Philly mail in votes left so I'm not sure why its saying 70%. Could be that their "absentee" number is off for some reason.

If everyone got lulled into a false sense of security because NYT couldn't track their data properly...

 

only correct and hilarious takes in here, everyone else go to the Food threads

 

JFP

just fucking post

 

Meh. Restless. Gonna try and get some more. Will be a while until we know enough, too much speculation and guessing atm.

 

But if you don't read the posts, how do you know who is consistently right or funny?

Do you see how your plan is full of holes?

 

Two of the things I studied to be post high school before giving up were math teacher & communications/journalism. Really could’ve been perfectly equipped for this moment.

Thank fucking God I didn’t, lol.

 

My high school self thought that my meteorology degree would steer me clear of extremely complicated math. And that was my first incorrect forecast in life

 

Well, you gotta put the work in first. But, eventually, you should become an expert at skimming.

(Also, if it wasn’t clear originally... no, I do not believe my posts pass my own test.)