General Politics Discussion VIII [ARCHIVED] • Page 490

fowruok · Nov 4, 2020

David87 said:

Yeah I just meant from 2016. Bucks and Lehigh better fucking flip back to blue, HRC carried those both.

I'd be shocked if Lehigh didn't flip back. I didn't even notice that one.

clucky · Nov 4, 2020

Jason Tate said:

He's going to keep winning the mail in ballots by a good margin. Dems voted by mail by a much higher margin than Republicans in PA. As we're seeing.

I hope you're right, but this still doesn't fully answer my question.

My concern is that if much of the remaining vote is in counties that went 60-40 Trump, Dems could out perform those counties in the mail in vote, but only do it 60-40 and still not get enough votes.

spreadthehummus2321 · Nov 4, 2020

David87 said:

I'm curious to see what other counties Biden can flip in PA. Erie maybe.

Unfortunately doesn't look like Berks or Lancaster will flip. I had hopes. My trump loving uncle lives in Berks. The city of Reading is heavily latino, and it's surrounded by red.

yea berks is like a gateway from the philly burbs into pennsyltucky. all trump country out there for sure. reading just isnt big enough to match up against all that red.

Zilla · Nov 4, 2020

I love Sam and "Detroiters" so much. His pride for Detroit is wonderful.

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

GA ... looks like ... ~66% maybe needed in what's left. Deep blue counties left.

Clear toss up.

Elder Lightning · Nov 4, 2020

Latest projections from FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver.

TLDR:

NC: Likely Trump
GA: Tossup/Lean Biden
PA: Lean Biden
AZ: Likely Biden
NV: Likely Biden
WI: Biden "apparent winner"
MI: Biden wins

Where The Race Stands For Now

We’re taking a bit of a pause on the live blog until we get results from Arizona and Georgia — expected around 9 p.m. ET and potentially, in Arizona, anyway, again at 12:30 a.m. ET.

This initial overview from me got a bit buried earlier with the Michigan projection for Biden, so I wanted to leave you with this in the meantime. Some of the numbers are a little outdated as of now, but only by a hour or so.

Here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

Anthony_ · Nov 4, 2020

Your Milkshake said:

View attachment 58552

the bots are out. thank you “Spiritual Gifts Ireland”

republicans are about to reject reality harder than ever for the second (or whatever the count is) time

cc: @aliens exist

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

clucky said:

I hope you're right, but this still doesn't fully answer my question.

My concern is that if much of the remaining vote is in counties that went 60-40 Trump, Dems could out perform those counties in the mail in vote, but only do it 60-40 and still not get enough votes.

Scroll up to see the counties. It's in a tweet above.

TheGuyfkaFringeofLunacy · Nov 4, 2020

clucky said:

I hope you're right, but this still doesn't fully answer my question.

My concern is that if much of the remaining vote is in counties that went 60-40 Trump, Dems could out perform those counties in the mail in vote, but only do it 60-40 and still not get enough votes.

The amount of red counties with votes outstanding of any meaning is just not there. Its all in the blue counties and cities.

clucky · Nov 4, 2020

Jason Tate said:

and he definitely should be able to do at least that with what's left

okay yeah that is encouraging. Still lots of blue vote left. Lets just get it counted soon so we can all relax.

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

Re: GA

Anthony_ · Nov 4, 2020

Zilla said:

I love Sam and "Detroiters" so much. His pride for Detroit is wonderful.

king

fowruok · Nov 4, 2020

Elder Lightning said:

Latest projections from FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver.

TLDR:

NC: Likely Trump
GA: Tossup/Lean Biden
PA: Lean Biden
AZ: Likely Biden
NV: Likely Biden
WI: Biden "apparent winner"
MI: Biden wins

This gives 306 electoral votes if I'm not mistaken?

I'll take it.

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

lol ... what

TheGuyfkaFringeofLunacy · Nov 4, 2020

fowruok said:

This gives 306 electoral votes if I'm not mistaken?

I'll take it.

After the craziness of last night, I will definitely take that.

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

bradsonemanband · Nov 4, 2020

Gotta love it

Utah went over 2,000 new cases today for the second time now.

clucky · Nov 4, 2020

fowruok said:

This gives 306 electoral votes if I'm not mistaken?

I'll take it.

yeah GA + AZ + NV + PA is 306. Which would be some fitting symmetry.

DarkHotline · Nov 4, 2020

Jason Tate said:

lol ... what

I really wish that man would go away too.

I Am Mick · Nov 4, 2020

DarkHotline said:

I really wish that man would go away too.

I'm sure his liver will slide out of his body any day now

Jason Tate · Nov 4, 2020

dare i check facebook

aoftbsten · Nov 4, 2020

incognitojones said:

SMH. This man wants BBQ and beer? AND Freedom? At a certain point he's gotta let one go.

Mort Michaels · Nov 4, 2020

Jason Tate said:

dare i check facebook

No.

Zilla · Nov 4, 2020

Jason Tate said:

dare i check facebook

The answer is always no.

bradsonemanband · Nov 4, 2020

Thousands attend Halloween party in Utah County until police arrive

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