General Politics Discussion (VI) [ARCHIVED] • Page 2125

I feel like its the opposite. I struggle to see any of the candidates actually being able to unify the whole party through a contested convention enough to go on and win the general.

 

Kaine/Kerry 2020

 

Yeah, she won't specifically because a brokered convention would (IMO) benefit her, which is why I'd go earlier than expected, after SC, and try and get her right then and there. I'd offer literally anything she wants.

 

idk man, I think she sees that there’s a path for her to emerge from the convention with the nomination provided she keeps campaigning hard and finishes decently in every primary. In fact I feel like that’s her only path to the nomination at this point barring a total collapse by both Bernie and Pete.

 

As I said in my first post about it, it would be very hard to unify the party, but they'd have a damn better chance than some rando no one's heard of the past two years.

 

I hope people start tempering expectations some. I see zero chance of any candidate getting close to "half" of the things they want to do done in this political hellhole reality.

 

Right but I don’t think there is anything he could offer her that would make her drop out because she knows she can ride endless second and third place finishes all the way to the convention. Having that knowledge, why would she drop out early?

 

There is what, 4-5 months between the convention and the presidency vote? Many other countries do their entire elections that time.

 

there’s definitely an anti-rudd contingent, that’s crazy

 

You know who wins the contested convention?

 

People are upset about Bloomberg jumping in at the last minute and buying his way through the primary, and he’s at least actually campaigning! if you really think the Democratic electorate is going to be ok with someone who didn’t campaign or debate or anything like that walking away with the nomination you’re delusional.

 

maybe because he actively encourages people who believe we should have been exterminated half a decade ago

idk possibly

 

fuck off!

 

the only reason would be for the head of a federal agency that she reeaaallllly wants but I don’t know what that would be that also wouldn’t be a step down from being a senator as far as influence goes. Does she fit the profile of someone who can run the Treasury? Idk. She’s smart as fuck but I don’t know if Treasury Secretary is in her wheelhouse or not

 

she’s not gonna trade the (very real) chance to be the head of ALL the federal agencies for the chance to be the head of just one lol

 

Future stat: 74% of Americans reportedly “didn’t even see it coming”

 

Average has him +8 right now. Some polls as high as +15. He won it by +21 in 2016. So, I think it's gotta be +5. No way to come out with a muddled finish again of two/three candidates all in a pack. Especially if his argument continues to be "we're going to bring out a new electorate."

And the way they do delegates,

There will be no such wrinkle with New Hampshire’s results. Out of New Hampshire’s total 24 Democratic delegates up for grabs, 16 are district-level delegates (eight per each of the state’s two congressional districts). The rest are made up of current and former party officials and prominent activists. Candidates need to reach a 15 percent threshold in order to receive delegates, and delegates will be awarded in proportion to the percentage of the primary vote each candidate wins in each district.

Should mean someone is be a clear winner here.

 

i thought your Baldwin fascination in the past was a bit

it works better as a bit. for real.

 

well yeah it would be a gamble on Bernie’s part to see if he can convince her to take the known quantity now vs. gambling on the contested convention

 

I think if this goes to a brokered convention Warren has an above-50% chance of taking the nomination. She’s the clear “compromise” pick at that point, regardless of how much of a snake she is. She has to truly believe that there’s no way she herself can beat Trump in November to pass up that chance. And I don’t think she thinks that.

 

It's why I think he has a (slightly maybe overrated) path.

 

I am actually shocked at this from Romney. Didn't expect it.

 

That's gotta be starting now after biden farted in Iowa