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General Politics Discussion [ARCHIVED] • Page 203

Discussion in 'Politics Forum' started by Melody Bot, Mar 13, 2015.

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  1. Dominick

    Prestigious Prestigious

    And for all you Nate Silver fans:

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    HRC VS TRUMP, CHANCES OF WINNING:
    TRUMP: 56.7%
    HRC: 43.3%

    BREAKDOWN (*GETS WORSE*):
    ELECTORAL VOTES, *NOW* ACC TO SILVER:
    -TRUMP: 283.8
    -HRC: 253.8

    POPULAR VOTES, *NOW*, ACC TO SILVER:
    -TRUMP: 45.4 %
    -HRC: 45.1%
     
    Jonesy, KimmyGibbler and Thursdaysox like this.
  2. KimmyGibbler

    Everywhere you look... Prestigious

    But what good is stating a policy position if it is a half truth, or completely dishonest? Is it better to lie about your positions or not have positions at all?
     
  3. John Jul 25, 2016
    (Last edited: Jul 25, 2016)
    John

    Trusted Prestigious

    I have trouble wrapping my head around the expectation that Bernie supporters should be placated. I didn't vote for Bernie in the primary with the expectation that he'd start moving toward's Clinton's positions if he won the nomination. I guess it's a practical reality, given that she has adopted some of his, if I'm not mistaken. I don't understand it though. For me, there's a personally responsibility that comes in play to not be a fucking baby about things and support the remaining candidate (of 2) who most closely aligns with my beliefs.
     
  4. Dominick

    Prestigious Prestigious

    And to be fair:

    image.jpeg
     
  5. KimmyGibbler

    Everywhere you look... Prestigious

    I don't know that a lot of Bernie supporters believe that Hillary closely aligns with their beliefs. I may be wrong though.
     
    Thursdaysox likes this.
  6. Trotsky

    Trusted

    Can anyone honestly ever see the HRC campaign actually getting on track and starting to meet projections? It's a new fucking scandal every week for the Clintons and it's hard for me to imagine her favorability trending upwards on its own.
     
    Thursdaysox likes this.
  7. John

    Trusted Prestigious

    Of the two candidates?
     
  8. KimmyGibbler

    Everywhere you look... Prestigious

    Idk, both Trump and Bernie criticized TPP, the Iraq War, they are both against Medicare and SS cuts, and they have both advocated for increased infrastructure spending.

    Where does a Bernie supporter find agreement with Hillary?
     
    Thursdaysox likes this.
  9. Malatesta

    i may get better but we won't ever get well Prestigious

    While not surprising, I don't think it's acceptable. Bernie entered the party in a legitimate manner and historically has held largely democratic positions, if not neoliberal. Neutrality should be expected, as the DNC is supposed to be merely the organizing pole on an issue of which the people are the arbiters. That's idealized, but nonetheless valid imo.
     
  10. Malatesta

    i may get better but we won't ever get well Prestigious

    In theory, on social issues. Bernie and Hillary have similar stances when not in terms of economics or foreign policies, which, for better or worse, people are less informed and passionate about.
     
    iCarly Rae Jepsen likes this.
  11. John

    Trusted Prestigious

    Not promoting racist, xenophobic, or Islamophobic ideas also seems like a big one.
     
  12. Thursdaysox

    We know it from the silence

    - When Bernie supporters refuse to vote for HRC, call them fucking babies. Bravo, she would be proud of you!
     
    popdisaster00 and KimmyGibbler like this.
  13. KimmyGibbler

    Everywhere you look... Prestigious

    I don't know that I would portray Hillary Clinton as a bearer of polices that promote racial, ethnic and lifestyle equality, would you? She might say that to win an election but I am not sure she has the record to back that up.
     
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  14. Jonesy

    Be my alibi?

    I didn't vote for Sanders either. The fact is Clinton isn't dominating the polls like I'm sure the DNC thought she would be. The reason Sanders supporters needed to be placated is so they will hopefully support Clinton as she clearly needs the support. Sanders was never going to move towards Clinton's position's, he was going to move towards DNC's positions though. There is a difference. While Clinton should adopt some of Sander's positions to gain favor with Sanders' supporters, as of right now she's simply been pandering to them and we won't know any real changes being made until after the convention. But saying "Fuck you, you lost, now get in line and support the candidate" doesn't really work well to win elections especially when the leading candidate has a lengthy list of issues hovering over her that she likes to plead the 5th to and continuously tell us that they are non issues or already have been resolved in a groaning or shady manner.
    The convention has given some concession to Sanders in hopes these small victories can some how be made to look like massive wins, which were all just negated by the leak.
    Remember the DNC much like the RNC and well every political party need to convince you to support them because you don't have to vote. You should. But it's not something you have to do.
     
    Thursdaysox likes this.
  15. jkauf

    Prestigious Supporter

    Am I the only one struggling with taking Nate Silver seriously lately when it comes to politics? Those numbers terrify me now, especially coming from him after he was so sure about Trump having no shot when this started.
     
  16. Trotsky

    Trusted

    You're not the only one.

    Silver became a mouthpiece for the Democratic establishment this election cycle-- like, despicably so. After Paul Krugman, he is the guy who I have lost the most respect for in 2016.
     
    jkauf likes this.
  17. John

    Trusted Prestigious

    All fair points.

    Poor wording on my part - I *did* vote for Sanders in the primary. I just didn't do so under the expectation that he would adopt Clinton/DNC policies - which is why I have trouble understanding some of the more vocal Bernie holdouts who expect Hillary to placate them. The practical reality that you lay out suggest that he would've.
     
  18. John Jul 25, 2016
    (Last edited: Jul 25, 2016)
    John

    Trusted Prestigious

    I haven't read the whole thing, but a post Nate ran today highlights those odds, while also acknowledging that it's if the vote took place today and that it doesn't.
     
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  19. iCarly Rae Jepsen

    run away with me Platinum

    No the " experts " have been very off this election cycle so it's hard to trust
     
    jkauf likes this.
  20. Jake Gyllenhaal

    Wookie of the Year Supporter

    NYPD acquires $7M in military-style equipment
     
    iCarly Rae Jepsen likes this.
  21. jkauf

    Prestigious Supporter

    I get that, I just always held Silver in a higher regard with his success rate and methods. His botching of the Trump factor for the last year or so has really turned me off.
     
    iCarly Rae Jepsen likes this.
  22. Jonesy

    Be my alibi?

    Numbers are just trends, doesn't make them factual. History and stats would show that Trump was an extremely long shot to be the nominee but yet, there was a chance of it happening. So if Nate is interpreting the numbers he has, he's been accurate so far in everything he's said, when he's said it. Think of him more as a weather man, he just interprets the data, doesn't mean it's going to happen like it's predicted too. "This is going to be the storm of the century!......get maybe an inch of snow." "Sunny and clear all day!.....microburst storm pops up"
     
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  23. jkauf

    Prestigious Supporter

    Maybe it's just me, but with Silver it feels like sometimes his predictions (would) get awfully close to guarantees without outright saying as much.
     
  24. Jonesy

    Be my alibi?

  25. John

    Trusted Prestigious

    That's a straw man, man.
     
    iCarly Rae Jepsen likes this.
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